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Cocoa

What world events mean for cocoa — the exporters, the routes, and the retail endpoint.

Market stress
2/10Muted
12-month price change
-12.4%
Sep ’25 → Sep ’26
Top exporter
28.9%
Côte d'Ivoire · of world exports

In your life

Farm share of your food dollar
11.8¢of every US consumer food dollar reaches the farm (USDA, 2024)

18.5¢ of every food-at-home dollar. That's a ceiling, not a prediction: makers and stores can absorb a cocoa spike, or pass on more than the cocoa alone.

Candy and chewing gum (CPI, US)

  • BLS doesn't publish a per-unit price for candy prices — the published retail measure is the Candy and chewing gum (CPI, US) index, at 228.786 in August 2026 (1982-84=100).
  • Last time this happened: when cocoa futures jumped +352.3% (Jan 2023 → Dec 2024), candy prices moved Jan 2023 (186.999) → Dec 2024 (201.153, +7.6%) → Dec 2025 (221.331, +18.4%) (BLS CUUR0000SEFR02).
  • Other forces were pushing too: Sugar, labor, packaging and freight also move the candy index; manufacturers hedge cocoa months ahead, delaying shelf impact.
  • Thin proxy: the index covers all candy and chewing gum, not chocolate alone. No published US lag study for cocoa → retail candy was found, so no lag window is stated.

BLS Consumer Price Index — CPI-U, Candy and chewing gum, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted (CUUR0000SEFR02)

Cocoa is in your everyday life as your chocolate bar.

World map of Cocoa exporters

Circle size ∝ share of world exports — country area does not imply volume

Top exporters
Ranked by share of world exports (2024 trade value).

Côte d'Ivoire

28.9% of world cocoa exports · 2024 trade value

Top 3 exporters: 63.2% of world exports.

Côte d'Ivoire accounts for 28.9% of the world's exported cocoa by value — a disruption here travels through the buyers and companies below.

What-if presets

See who depends on it ↓

Documented supply-chain relationships — independent of your scenario assumptions.

Cocoa
Chocolate manufacturers buy cocoa liquor, butter and powder

cocoa liquor · cocoa butter · cocoa powder

No documented company exposure in our sources for Retail chocolate aisle.

A cocoa supply shock would likely first appear in futures and cash bids — timing and size are not established in our sources.

Trade structure

Critical exporters & importers

2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag

Top exporters

  • Côte d'Ivoiredominant

    28.9% of world exports

  • Ecuadordominant

    22.5% of world exports

  • Nigeria

    11.8% of world exports

  • Ghana

    7.8% of world exports

  • Netherlands

    7.2% of world exports

Next tier: Peru (5.8%), Malaysia (5.1%), Dominican Republic (3.1%)

Top importers

  • Netherlands

    28.4% of world imports22.1% from Côte d'Ivoire

  • Malaysia

    21.9% of world imports

  • Germany

    10.4% of world imports53.1% from Netherlands

  • Indonesia

    7.3% of world imports39.8% from Ecuador

  • Canada

    4.9% of world imports

An importer is “critical” here by share of world cocoa imports; the per-exporter dependency underneath is what makes a shock travel. 2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag — annual data, 1–2y lag.

Moves through: Panama Canal

Market stress data as of Sep 24, 2026 from the commodity supply-risk monitor.

Cocoa — market stress 2/10 (Muted) | Morrowfly