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In your life

Farm share of your food dollar
11.8¢of every US consumer food dollar reaches the farm (USDA, 2024)

18.5¢ of every food-at-home dollar. That's a ceiling, not a prediction: makers and stores can absorb a cocoa spike, or pass on more than the cocoa alone.

Candy and chewing gum (CPI, US)

  • BLS doesn't publish a per-unit price for candy prices — the published retail measure is the Candy and chewing gum (CPI, US) index, at 228.786 in August 2026 (1982-84=100).
  • Last time this happened: when cocoa futures jumped +352.3% (Jan 2023 → Dec 2024), candy prices moved Jan 2023 (186.999) → Dec 2024 (201.153, +7.6%) → Dec 2025 (221.331, +18.4%) (BLS CUUR0000SEFR02).
  • Other forces were pushing too: Sugar, labor, packaging and freight also move the candy index; manufacturers hedge cocoa months ahead, delaying shelf impact.
  • Thin proxy: the index covers all candy and chewing gum, not chocolate alone. No published US lag study for cocoa → retail candy was found, so no lag window is stated.

BLS Consumer Price Index — CPI-U, Candy and chewing gum, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted (CUUR0000SEFR02)

The verdict

Cocoa is calm.

CCH27.NYB Mar-2027 contango (stable) — deferred premium, near-term supply ample.

Calm

Illustrative scenario. Not a prediction. Not financial advice.

The board

This week
No sharp move this week
This year
Price down 3% over the past year
Where it comes from
Côte d'Ivoire, Ecuador and Nigeria grow 63% of the world's cocoa — concentrated.

The 0–10 stress score and the full evidence sit under “How we know” below.

What if the supply got cut?

What if West Africa's cocoa belt dries out? — move the sliders and get the answer in plain English.

Play the what-if →
How we knowStress scores, exporters, routes, spike history, and the disruption model — analyst layer.
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Cocoa

What world events mean for cocoa — the exporters, the routes, and the retail endpoint.

Market stress
2/10Muted
12-month price change
-3.4%
Oct ’25 → Oct ’26
Change in monthly average vs 12 months earlier
Top exporter
28.9%
Côte d'Ivoire · of world exports

In your life

Farm share of your food dollar
11.8¢of every US consumer food dollar reaches the farm (USDA, 2024)

18.5¢ of every food-at-home dollar. That's a ceiling, not a prediction: makers and stores can absorb a cocoa spike, or pass on more than the cocoa alone.

Candy and chewing gum (CPI, US)

  • BLS doesn't publish a per-unit price for candy prices — the published retail measure is the Candy and chewing gum (CPI, US) index, at 228.786 in August 2026 (1982-84=100).
  • Last time this happened: when cocoa futures jumped +352.3% (Jan 2023 → Dec 2024), candy prices moved Jan 2023 (186.999) → Dec 2024 (201.153, +7.6%) → Dec 2025 (221.331, +18.4%) (BLS CUUR0000SEFR02).
  • Other forces were pushing too: Sugar, labor, packaging and freight also move the candy index; manufacturers hedge cocoa months ahead, delaying shelf impact.
  • Thin proxy: the index covers all candy and chewing gum, not chocolate alone. No published US lag study for cocoa → retail candy was found, so no lag window is stated.

BLS Consumer Price Index — CPI-U, Candy and chewing gum, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted (CUUR0000SEFR02)

Where it comes from, and how it reaches your wallet

Cocoa is in your everyday life as your chocolate bar.

Circle size ∝ share of world exports — country area does not imply volume

Top exporters
Ranked by share of world exports (2024 trade value).

Côte d'Ivoire

28.9% of world cocoa exports · 2024 trade value

Top 3 exporters: 63.2% of world exports.

Côte d'Ivoire accounts for 28.9% of the world's exported cocoa by value — a disruption here travels through the buyers and companies below.

What-if presets

See who depends on it ↓

Documented supply-chain relationships — independent of your scenario assumptions.

Cocoa
Chocolate manufacturers buy cocoa liquor, butter and powder

cocoa liquor · cocoa butter · cocoa powder

No documented company exposure in our sources for Retail chocolate aisle.

A cocoa supply shock would likely first appear in futures and cash bids — timing and size are not established in our sources.

Trade structure

Critical exporters & importers

2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag

Top exporters

  • Côte d'Ivoiredominant

    28.9% of world exports

  • Ecuadordominant

    22.5% of world exports

  • Nigeria

    11.8% of world exports

  • Ghana

    7.8% of world exports

  • Netherlands

    7.2% of world exports

Next tier: Peru (5.8%), Malaysia (5.1%), Dominican Republic (3.1%)

Top importers

  • Netherlands

    28.4% of world imports22.1% from Côte d'Ivoire

  • Malaysia

    21.9% of world imports

  • Germany

    10.4% of world imports53.1% from Netherlands

  • Indonesia

    7.3% of world imports39.8% from Ecuador

  • Canada

    4.9% of world imports

An importer is “critical” here by share of world cocoa imports; the per-exporter dependency underneath is what makes a shock travel. 2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag — annual data, 1–2y lag.

Moves through: Panama Canal

Pick a shock, move the sliders, see what it would mean.

Market stress data as of Nov 9, 2026 from the commodity supply-risk monitor.

Cocoa — market stress 2/10 (Muted) | Morrowfly