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In your life

Farm share of your food dollar
11.8¢of every US consumer food dollar reaches the farm (USDA, 2024)

18.5¢ of every food-at-home dollar. That's a ceiling, not a prediction: makers and stores can absorb a corn spike, or pass on more than the corn alone.

Grade A large eggs (US)

  • Grade A large eggs (US) costs about $2.27 a dozen in the US (August 2026, BLS).
  • When corn prices jump, eggs usually follows 3–5 months later.
  • Last time this happened: when corn futures jumped +22.3% (Feb 2012 → Aug 2012), eggs moved Jun 2012 ($1.670/doz) → Dec 2012 ($2.007/doz, +20.2%) → Jan 2013 ($1.933/doz, +15.7%) (BLS APU0000708111).
  • Other forces were pushing too: Egg prices also move with holiday baking demand each December, energy and transport costs, and layer-flock size — not feed corn alone.
  • Eggs are the measured retail leg; soda (HFCS) stays a thin leg and is not measured here.

BLS Average Price Data — 'Eggs, grade A, large, per dozen' in U.S. city average (FRED APU0000708111) Lag basis: Leibtag (2009), USDA ERS: retail egg prices respond to commodity/input cost changes in 3–5 months.

The verdict

Corn is calm.

ZCZ26.CBT Dec-2026 contango (stable) — deferred premium, near-term supply ample.

Calm

Illustrative scenario. Not a prediction. Not financial advice.

The board

This week
No sharp move this week
This year
Price up 14% over the past year
Where it comes from
United States, Brazil and Argentina grow 65% of the world's corn — concentrated.

The 0–10 stress score and the full evidence sit under “How we know” below.

What if the supply got cut?

What if a severe La Niña hits South American crops? — move the sliders and get the answer in plain English.

Play the what-if →
How we knowStress scores, exporters, routes, spike history, and the disruption model — analyst layer.
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Corn

What world events mean for corn — the exporters, the routes, and the retail endpoint.

Market stress
3/10Limited
12-month price change
+14.3%
Oct ’25 → Oct ’26
Change in monthly average vs 12 months earlier
Top exporter
30.3%
United States · of world exports

In your life

Farm share of your food dollar
11.8¢of every US consumer food dollar reaches the farm (USDA, 2024)

18.5¢ of every food-at-home dollar. That's a ceiling, not a prediction: makers and stores can absorb a corn spike, or pass on more than the corn alone.

Grade A large eggs (US)

  • Grade A large eggs (US) costs about $2.27 a dozen in the US (August 2026, BLS).
  • When corn prices jump, eggs usually follows 3–5 months later.
  • Last time this happened: when corn futures jumped +22.3% (Feb 2012 → Aug 2012), eggs moved Jun 2012 ($1.670/doz) → Dec 2012 ($2.007/doz, +20.2%) → Jan 2013 ($1.933/doz, +15.7%) (BLS APU0000708111).
  • Other forces were pushing too: Egg prices also move with holiday baking demand each December, energy and transport costs, and layer-flock size — not feed corn alone.
  • Eggs are the measured retail leg; soda (HFCS) stays a thin leg and is not measured here.

BLS Average Price Data — 'Eggs, grade A, large, per dozen' in U.S. city average (FRED APU0000708111) Lag basis: Leibtag (2009), USDA ERS: retail egg prices respond to commodity/input cost changes in 3–5 months.

Where it comes from, and how it reaches your wallet

Corn is in your everyday life as your tortillas & cereal.

Circle size ∝ share of world exports — country area does not imply volume

Top exporters
Ranked by share of world exports (2024 trade value).

United States

30.3% of world corn exports · 2024 trade value

Top 3 exporters: 65.4% of world exports.

United States accounts for 30.3% of the world's exported corn by value — a disruption here travels through the buyers and companies below.

What-if presets

Trade routes serving United States

See who depends on it ↓

Documented supply-chain relationships — independent of your scenario assumptions.

Corn
Livestock and poultry producers (feed costs)

chicken · eggs · pork · beef

Ethanol producers

ethanol · distillers grains · corn oil

No documented company exposure in our sources for Sweeteners and soft drinks.

A corn supply shock would likely first appear in futures and cash bids — timing and size are not established in our sources.

Trade structure

Critical exporters & importers

2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag

Top exporters

  • United Statesdominant

    30.3% of world exports

  • Brazil

    18.7% of world exports

  • Argentina

    16.4% of world exports

  • Ukraine

    13.1% of world exports

  • France

    2.3% of world exports

Next tier: South Africa (2.1%), Myanmar (1.8%)

Top importers

  • Mexico

    10.6% of world imports99.8% from United States

  • Japan

    8.2% of world imports83% from United States

  • South Korea

    6% of world imports27.2% from Argentina

  • Vietnam

    5.7% of world imports55.5% from Argentina

  • China

    4.9% of world imports52.1% from Ukraine

An importer is “critical” here by share of world corn imports; the per-exporter dependency underneath is what makes a shock travel. 2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag — annual data, 1–2y lag.

Moves through: Panama Canal · Turkish Straits

Pick a shock, move the sliders, see what it would mean.

Market stress data as of Nov 9, 2026 from the commodity supply-risk monitor.

Corn — market stress 3/10 (Limited) | Morrowfly