MORROWFLY

Chokepoint

Strait of Hormuz

2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag3 commodities tracked through these waters · 2 scenarios shock this lane

Every commodity below names Strait of Hormuz in its sourced corridor data. Shares are 2024 trade structure — exposure, not a forecast. Where a route share is unknown, no sourced figure was found; unknown is not zero.

Crude oil

1 lane through these waters

Strait of Hormuz

Serves Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, KW, Qatar, Iraq, IR · 27% of global maritime oil trade (crude + petroleum products)

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2024

Top exporters worldwide

  • Saudi Arabia

    14.28% of world exports

  • Russia

    9.49% of world exports

  • United States

    9.33% of world exports

  • United Arab Emirates

    8.75% of world exports

  • Canada

    8.29% of world exports

Scenarios that shock this lane

What if Hormuz stays choked through winter? · Strait of Hormuz

  • 43.07% of Japan’s crude oil imports come from United Arab Emirates

  • 34.82% of South Korea’s crude oil imports come from Saudi Arabia

What if energy infrastructure gets hit next? · Persian Gulf energy infrastructure

  • 43.07% of Japan’s crude oil imports come from United Arab Emirates

  • 34.82% of South Korea’s crude oil imports come from Saudi Arabia

Lng

1 lane through these waters

Strait of Hormuz (Qatar LNG lane)

Serves Qatar · 20% of global LNG trade

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2024

Top exporters worldwide

  • Australia

    21.64% of world exports

  • United States

    19.69% of world exports

  • Qatar

    17.4% of world exports

  • Russia

    8.14% of world exports

  • Malaysia

    6.73% of world exports

Urea

1 lane through these waters

Middle East Gulf urea terminals (Oman / Qatar / Saudi Arabia)

Serves Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia · 21% of global urea trade (derived: ~10.7 Mt of ~50.8 Mt)

Source: UNCTAD via Ecofin Agency; Rystad Energy (corroborating), 2025/26

Top exporters worldwide

  • Russia

    14.11% of world exports

  • China

    9.58% of world exports

  • Oman

    7.89% of world exports

  • Qatar

    5.25% of world exports

  • Egypt

    4.92% of world exports

Illustrative scenario lens — not a prediction, not financial advice.