A market worth thinking through · Polymarket · Energy
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
How this market resolves
YES if the 7-day average of daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz reaches 60 or more, as published by IMF Portwatch, on any day through December 31, 2026.
Why we find this interesting
Crude exports are reportedly back at prewar levels, yet the market prices full shipping normalization at just 19%. It resolves mechanically on IMF Portwatch data — no judgment calls.
The question we'd start with
If crude is flowing again, what's still keeping ships away — and what would it take to get back to 60 transits a day?
Play it through yourself
These what-if scenarios touch the same forces. Move the sliders and see what breaks.
Where the market stands
You've done the thinking. Here's what the crowd currently believes.
Market price
19%
As of 2026-10-03 — loading live price…
Got a view? Paper-trade it
Put virtual money behind your read. We settle it when the market resolves — the point is the practice, not the profit.
Loading live price…
We haven't taken a view on this one yet — no number from us, just the framing. When we do the full work, it shows up under what we're thinking through.
See the live market →Opens Polymarket in a new tab. Not financial advice.