Our take · Polymarket
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US before 2027?
Market says
7%
We think
4%
The 2026 season is historically dead — zero hurricanes, record wind shear. We put the chance near 4%, close to the market's 6.5%. Passing.
Why we're passing
Our revised view (4%) sits just below the market (6.5%) — below our 5-point threshold. The research showed the market had this about right; our earlier 18% was overstated.
Our thinking
We were wrong on this one at first, and the research corrected us. The 2026 Atlantic season is the most suppressed since 1914: eight named storms, zero hurricanes. Record wind shear from the super El Niño is tearing storms apart before they can organize. In about 175 years of records, only five Category 4+ hurricanes have hit the US in October — and none ever in November. The National Hurricane Center expects no new storm formation in the next week. Our earlier 18% was too high; near 4% is the honest read, and the market's 6.5% is in the right neighborhood.
Key facts
Zero hurricanes — first time since 1914
Eight named storms (Arthur through Hanna), all peaked as tropical storms. First Atlantic season since 1914 to reach late September with zero hurricanes.
Wikipedia; NHC via Parade · Sep 22, 2026
Wind shear at record levels
Atlantic July–August vertical wind shear ranked highest on record for the 47-year period; early-September 30-day average was the strongest since the satellite era began in 1979. All previous top-shear years were El Niño years.
Klotzbach via USA Today · Sep 12, 2026
October Cat4+ US landfalls: 5 in ~175 years; November: zero ever
Only five Category 4+ continental-US landfalls in October since 1851 (most recent: Michael, 2018). No Cat4+ US landfall has ever occurred in November.
NOAA/HRD via Weather Channel · Oct 2018
NHC: no formation expected for 7 days
The National Hurricane Center's Oct 3 outlook: 'Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.' No active cyclones.
NHC Tropical Weather Outlook · Oct 3, 2026
What would change our mind
- 2026 Atlantic season ends Nov 30 with no Cat4 US landfall (position resolves)
- A Category 4+ US landfall occurs (position resolves)
How confident are we
Fairly confident the market has this about right. The season's suppression is a measured fact, not a guess.
Work through it yourself
Don't take our word for it — explore the what-ifs behind this market and form your own view.
We paper-trade our views so you can see how our thinking ages. Not financial advice. Not a recommendation.