How strong does this El Niño get?
Will the 2026–27 El Niño's peak RONI reach +2.5°C or higher?
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The story so far
The Pacific is running hotter than almost any year on record. In its September 10 outlook, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center put the chance that the October–December reading hits +2.5°C — a level that would top every El Niño since 1950 — at 75%, with better than 90% odds of a very strong event this fall and winter. The latest published reading was +1.4°C and climbing; an El Niño Advisory is in effect. El Niño rearranges harvests on every continent — the last strong ones redrew coffee, grain, and cocoa markets. This one is shaping up to be the benchmark they all get measured against.
How this resolves
This resolves YES if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a peak RONI (Relative Oceanic Niño Index) of +2.5°C or higher for any of the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026 through DJF 2026-27. The feed is NOAA CPC's official RONI page. Each season's first published value is final — later revisions don't change the outcome. If no listed season reaches +2.5°C once the DJF 2026-27 value is published, it resolves NO.
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What actually happened last time something like this was on the table.
Illustrative question. Not a prediction. Not financial advice. Votes are anonymous counts — they measure players, never a representative sample.