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Chokepoint

Strait of Malacca

2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag7 commodities tracked through these waters · 3 scenarios shock this lane

Every commodity below names Strait of Malacca in its sourced corridor data. Shares are 2024 trade structure — exposure, not a forecast. Where a route share is unknown, no sourced figure was found; unknown is not zero.

Coffee

1 lane through these waters

Southeast Asian robusta shipments

Serves Vietnam, Indonesia

Route share unknown — No sourced commodity-specific Malacca coffee share; VN/ID coffee to EU also uses Suez, so no single share exists. Corridor-share research (Sep 2026): no commodity-specific corridor figure found in public sources -- not zero, just unsourced.

Top exporters worldwide

  • Brazil

    34.5% of world exports

  • Vietnam

    12.1% of world exports

  • Colombia

    10.9% of world exports

  • Indonesia

    4.6% of world exports

  • Ethiopia

    4.3% of world exports

Cotton

3 lanes through these waters

Atlantic cotton to Asian mills (Brazil + US)

Serves Brazil, United States

Route share unknown — No sourced commodity-specific Malacca cotton share. Corridor-share research (Sep 2026): no commodity-specific corridor figure found in public sources -- not zero, just unsourced.

Australian cotton to East Asia

Serves Australia

Route share unknown — No sourced commodity-specific Malacca/Lombok cotton share. Corridor-share research (Sep 2026): no commodity-specific corridor figure found in public sources -- not zero, just unsourced.

West African cotton to Asia (Benin)

Serves Benin

Route share unknown — No sourced commodity-specific Malacca cotton share. Corridor-share research (Sep 2026): no commodity-specific corridor figure found in public sources -- not zero, just unsourced.

Top exporters worldwide

  • Brazil

    30.7% of world exports

  • United States

    26.8% of world exports

  • Australia

    13.7% of world exports

  • India

    5.5% of world exports

  • Benin

    3% of world exports

Palm oil

1 lane through these waters

Strait of Malacca

Serves Indonesia, Malaysia

Route share unknown — No sourced seaborne palm-oil Malacca share; only weak generic claims. Corridor-share research (Sep 2026): no commodity-specific corridor figure found in public sources -- not zero, just unsourced.

Top exporters worldwide

  • Indonesia

    48.6% of world exports

  • Malaysia

    34.1% of world exports

  • Netherlands

    2% of world exports

  • Thailand

    1.9% of world exports

  • Papua New Guinea

    1.6% of world exports

Scenarios that shock this lane

What if this El Niño is the strongest since 1950? · Indonesia + Malaysia

  • 87.4% of Pakistan’s palm oil imports come from Indonesia

  • 84.8% of United States’s palm oil imports come from Indonesia

  • 65.4% of China’s palm oil imports come from Indonesia

  • 53.1% of India’s palm oil imports come from Indonesia

  • 29.4% of Netherlands’s palm oil imports come from Malaysia

Rice

1 lane through these waters

Westbound Southeast Asian rice (Middle East/Africa/Europe lanes)

Serves Thailand, Vietnam · 20% of internationally traded rice

Source: Chatham House, 2015 (published 2017)

Top exporters worldwide

  • India

    30% of world exports

  • Thailand

    17% of world exports

  • Pakistan

    10.3% of world exports

  • Vietnam

    10.3% of world exports

  • United States

    6.4% of world exports

Rubber

1 lane through these waters

Southeast Asia → Northeast Asia (Strait of Malacca)

Serves Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia

Route share unknown — No sourced figure for rubber via Malacca. Corridor-share research (Sep 2026): no commodity-specific corridor figure found in public sources -- not zero, just unsourced.

Top exporters worldwide

  • Thailand

    30.7% of world exports

  • Indonesia

    18.9% of world exports

  • Côte d'Ivoire

    16.1% of world exports

  • Vietnam

    7.5% of world exports

  • Malaysia

    7% of world exports

Soybeans

1 lane through these waters

Strait of Malacca

Serves Brazil, United States · 25% of global soybean exports

Source: Chatham House, 2015 (published 2017)

Top exporters worldwide

  • Brazil

    53.6% of world exports

  • United States

    30.7% of world exports

  • Paraguay

    4% of world exports

  • Canada

    3.1% of world exports

  • Argentina

    2.3% of world exports

Scenarios that shock this lane

What if Brazil's harvests falter? · Brazil

  • 85.3% of Thailand’s soybeans imports come from Brazil

  • 71.8% of Spain’s soybeans imports come from Brazil

  • 67.7% of China’s soybeans imports come from Brazil

  • 36.1% of Mexico’s soybeans imports come from Brazil

What if a severe La Niña hits South American crops? · Argentina + Brazil

  • 85.3% of Thailand’s soybeans imports come from Brazil

  • 71.8% of Spain’s soybeans imports come from Brazil

  • 67.7% of China’s soybeans imports come from Brazil

  • 36.1% of Mexico’s soybeans imports come from Brazil

What if a severe La Niña hits South American crops? · Brazil

  • 85.3% of Thailand’s soybeans imports come from Brazil

  • 71.8% of Spain’s soybeans imports come from Brazil

  • 67.7% of China’s soybeans imports come from Brazil

  • 36.1% of Mexico’s soybeans imports come from Brazil

Sugar

1 lane through these waters

Strait of Malacca

Serves Thailand

Route share unknown — No sourced figure for Thai sugar via Malacca. Corridor-share research (Sep 2026): no commodity-specific corridor figure found in public sources -- not zero, just unsourced.

Top exporters worldwide

  • Brazil

    47.4% of world exports

  • Thailand

    6.3% of world exports

  • India

    5% of world exports

  • France

    4% of world exports

  • Australia

    4% of world exports

Illustrative scenario lens — not a prediction, not financial advice.