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Orange juice

What world events mean for orange juice — the exporters, the routes, and the retail endpoint.

Market stress
5/10Significant
12-month price change
-40.5%
Sep ’25 → Sep ’26
Top exporter
49%
Brazil · of world exports

In your life

Farm share of your food dollar
11.8¢of every US consumer food dollar reaches the farm (USDA, 2024)

18.5¢ of every food-at-home dollar. That's a ceiling, not a prediction: makers and stores can absorb a orange juice spike, or pass on more than the orange juice alone.

Frozen concentrated orange juice (US)

  • Frozen concentrated orange juice (US) costs about $4.82 per 16 ounces in the US (July 2026, BLS).
  • When orange juice prices jump, frozen orange juice usually follows 1–2 months later.
  • Last time this happened: when orange juice futures jumped +190.2% (30 Sep 2022 → 6 Sep 2024), frozen orange juice moved Sep 2022 ($2.777/16 oz) → Sep 2024 ($4.227/16 oz, +52.2%) → Jun 2025 ($4.493/16 oz, +61.8%) (BLS APU0000713111).
  • Other forces were pushing too: Brazilian and Mexican imports supply most US OJ; the measured series is frozen concentrate, not ready-to-drink juice.
  • Endpoint is frozen concentrate per 16 oz — not ready-to-drink retail OJ.

BLS Average Price Data — 'Orange juice, frozen concentrate, 12 oz. can, per 16 oz.' in U.S. city average (FRED APU0000713111) Lag basis: Leibtag (2009), USDA ERS: retail orange prices respond to commodity/input cost changes in 1–2 months.

World map of Orange juice exporters

Circle size ∝ share of world exports — country area does not imply volume

Top exporters
Ranked by share of world exports (2024 trade value).

Brazil

49% of world orange juice exports · 2024 trade value

Top 3 exporters: 64.2% of world exports.

Brazil accounts for 49% of the world's exported orange juice by value — a disruption here travels through the buyers and companies below.

What-if presets

See who depends on it ↓

Documented supply-chain relationships — independent of your scenario assumptions.

Orange juice
Juice processors and bottlers buy orange juice and concentrate

not-from-concentrate juice · reconstituted juice

No documented company exposure in our sources for Retail juice aisle.

A orange juice supply shock would likely first appear in futures and cash bids — timing and size are not established in our sources.

Trade structure

Critical exporters & importers

2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag

Top exporters

  • Brazildominant

    49% of world exports

  • Mexico

    8.7% of world exports

  • Netherlands

    6.5% of world exports

  • Spain

    6.2% of world exports

  • Germany

    3.1% of world exports

Next tier: United States (2.8%), Belgium (2.8%)

Top importers

  • United States

    22.3% of world imports63.4% from Brazil

  • Netherlands

    14.9% of world imports62.2% from Brazil

  • Belgium

    8.1% of world imports84.5% from Brazil

  • Germany

    6% of world imports37.4% from Brazil

  • France

    5.6% of world imports29.6% from Brazil

An importer is “critical” here by share of world orange juice imports; the per-exporter dependency underneath is what makes a shock travel. 2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag — annual data, 1–2y lag.

Moves through: Dover Strait

Market stress data as of Sep 24, 2026 from the commodity supply-risk monitor.

Orange juice — market stress 5/10 (Significant) | Morrowfly