Rubber
We don't have an honest retail series for this yet — BLS publishes producer-price series for tires, but no standalone retail tire price series exists.
US scope. We show a retail endpoint only when a published BLS series measures it honestly.
In your life
The verdict
Natural rubber is cooling off.
Indonesia's rubber country soil moisture extremely wet.
CoolingIllustrative scenario. Not a prediction. Not financial advice.
The board
- This week
- No sharp move this week
- This year
- Price up 49% over the past year
- Where it comes from
- Thailand, Indonesia and Côte d'Ivoire grow 66% of the world's natural rubber — concentrated.
The 0–10 stress score and the full evidence sit under “How we know” below.
How we knowStress scores, exporters, routes, spike history, and the disruption model — analyst layer.
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Natural rubber
What world events mean for natural rubber — the exporters, the routes, and the retail endpoint.
Market stress
2/10Muted
12-month price change
+49.1%
Oct ’25 → Oct ’26
Change in monthly average vs 12 months earlier
Top exporter
30.7%
Thailand · of world exports
In your life
Rubber
We don't have an honest retail series for this yet — BLS publishes producer-price series for tires, but no standalone retail tire price series exists.
US scope. We show a retail endpoint only when a published BLS series measures it honestly.
Where it comes from, and how it reaches your wallet
Natural rubber is in your everyday life as your tires.
Circle size ∝ share of world exports — country area does not imply volume
Thailand
30.7% of world natural rubber exports · 2024 trade value
Top 3 exporters: 65.7% of world exports.
Thailand accounts for 30.7% of the world's exported natural rubber by value — a disruption here travels through the buyers and companies below.
What-if presets
Documented supply-chain relationships — independent of your scenario assumptions.
Natural rubber
No documented company exposure in our sources for Tire manufacturers; Replacement tires and new vehicles.
A natural rubber supply shock would likely first appear in futures and cash bids — timing and size are not established in our sources.
Trade structure
Critical exporters & importers
2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lagTop exporters
Thailanddominant
30.7% of world exports
Indonesia
18.9% of world exports
Côte d'Ivoire
16.1% of world exports
Vietnam
7.5% of world exports
Malaysia
7% of world exports
Next tier: Cambodia (3.8%), Myanmar (3.2%)
Top importers
23.3% of world imports37.4% from Thailand
10.9% of world imports41.5% from Indonesia
8.9% of world imports45.1% from Thailand
7.1% of world imports52.5% from Indonesia
6.2% of world imports23.3% from Côte d'Ivoire
An importer is “critical” here by share of world natural rubber imports; the per-exporter dependency underneath is what makes a shock travel. 2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag — annual data, 1–2y lag.
Moves through: Strait of Malacca
Pick a shock, move the sliders, see what it would mean.
Market stress data as of Nov 9, 2026 from the commodity supply-risk monitor.