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Soybeans

What world events mean for soybeans — the exporters, the routes, and the retail endpoint.

Market stress
3/10Limited
12-month price change
+30.0%
Sep ’25 → Sep ’26
Top exporter
53.6%
Brazil · of world exports

In your life

Farm share of your food dollar
11.8¢of every US consumer food dollar reaches the farm (USDA, 2024)

18.5¢ of every food-at-home dollar. That's a ceiling, not a prediction: makers and stores can absorb a soybeans spike, or pass on more than the soybeans alone.

Fats and oils (CPI, US)

  • BLS doesn't publish a per-unit price for cooking fats and oils — the published retail measure is the Fats and oils (CPI, US) index, at 312.692 in August 2026 (1982-84=100).
  • Last time this happened: when soybeans futures jumped +52.7% (13 Jan 2012 → 4 Sep 2012), cooking fats and oils moved Jan 2012 (234.252) → Sep 2012 (233.223, −0.4%) → Dec 2012 (231.540, −1.2%) (BLS CUUR0000SEFS).
  • Other forces were pushing too: The fats-and-oils basket spans palm, canola and other oils — palm oil prices fell through 2012; substitution across oils dilutes any soybean-only signal.
  • Thin proxy and the honest lesson: a 53% soybean spike left the broad US fats-and-oils index flat-to-down. No published US lag study for soybeans → retail fats/oils was found, so no lag window is stated.

BLS Consumer Price Index — CPI-U, Fats and oils, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted (CUUR0000SEFS)

Soybeans is in your everyday life as your cooking oil.

World map of Soybeans exporters

Circle size ∝ share of world exports — country area does not imply volume

Top exporters
Ranked by share of world exports (2024 trade value).

Brazil

53.6% of world soybeans exports · 2024 trade value

Top 3 exporters: 88.3% of world exports.

Brazil accounts for 53.6% of the world's exported soybeans by value — a disruption here travels through the buyers and companies below.

See who depends on it ↓

Documented supply-chain relationships — independent of your scenario assumptions.

Soybeans
Soybean crushers and vegetable oil

cooking oil · vegetable oil · margarine · biodiesel

Soymeal, animal feed and meat

soybean meal · animal feed · chicken · pork

A soybeans supply shock would likely first appear in futures and cash bids — timing and size are not established in our sources.

Trade structure

Critical exporters & importers

2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag

Top exporters

  • Brazildominant

    53.6% of world exports

  • United Statesdominant

    30.7% of world exports

  • Paraguay

    4% of world exports

  • Canada

    3.1% of world exports

  • Argentina

    2.3% of world exports

Next tier: Ukraine (1.7%), Uruguay (1.5%)

Top importers

  • China

    59.2% of world imports67.7% from Brazil

  • Argentina

    3.9% of world imports89.4% from Paraguay

  • Spain

    3.1% of world imports71.8% from Brazil

  • Mexico

    2.4% of world imports63.9% from United States

  • Thailand

    2.3% of world imports85.3% from Brazil

An importer is “critical” here by share of world soybeans imports; the per-exporter dependency underneath is what makes a shock travel. 2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag — annual data, 1–2y lag.

Moves through: Strait of Malacca · Suez Canal · Panama Canal

Market stress data as of Sep 24, 2026 from the commodity supply-risk monitor.

Soybeans — market stress 3/10 (Limited) | Morrowfly