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In your life

Farm share of your food dollar
11.8¢of every US consumer food dollar reaches the farm (USDA, 2024)

18.5¢ of every food-at-home dollar. That's a ceiling, not a prediction: makers and stores can absorb a soybeans spike, or pass on more than the soybeans alone.

Fats and oils (CPI, US)

  • BLS doesn't publish a per-unit price for cooking fats and oils — the published retail measure is the Fats and oils (CPI, US) index, at 312.692 in August 2026 (1982-84=100).
  • Last time this happened: when soybeans futures jumped +52.7% (13 Jan 2012 → 4 Sep 2012), cooking fats and oils moved Jan 2012 (234.252) → Sep 2012 (233.223, −0.4%) → Dec 2012 (231.540, −1.2%) (BLS CUUR0000SEFS).
  • Other forces were pushing too: The fats-and-oils basket spans palm, canola and other oils — palm oil prices fell through 2012; substitution across oils dilutes any soybean-only signal.
  • Thin proxy and the honest lesson: a 53% soybean spike left the broad US fats-and-oils index flat-to-down. No published US lag study for soybeans → retail fats/oils was found, so no lag window is stated.

BLS Consumer Price Index — CPI-U, Fats and oils, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted (CUUR0000SEFS)

The verdict

Soybeans is calm.

ZSX26.CBT Nov-2026 contango (flattening) — deferred premium, near-term supply ample.

Calm

Illustrative scenario. Not a prediction. Not financial advice.

The board

This week
No sharp move this week
This year
Price up 27% over the past year
Where it comes from
Brazil, United States and Paraguay grow 88% of the world's soybeans — concentrated.

The 0–10 stress score and the full evidence sit under “How we know” below.

What if the supply got cut?

What if Brazil's harvests falter? — move the sliders and get the answer in plain English.

Play the what-if →
How we knowStress scores, exporters, routes, spike history, and the disruption model — analyst layer.
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Soybeans

What world events mean for soybeans — the exporters, the routes, and the retail endpoint.

Market stress
2/10Muted
12-month price change
+27.5%
Oct ’25 → Oct ’26
Change in monthly average vs 12 months earlier
Top exporter
53.6%
Brazil · of world exports

In your life

Farm share of your food dollar
11.8¢of every US consumer food dollar reaches the farm (USDA, 2024)

18.5¢ of every food-at-home dollar. That's a ceiling, not a prediction: makers and stores can absorb a soybeans spike, or pass on more than the soybeans alone.

Fats and oils (CPI, US)

  • BLS doesn't publish a per-unit price for cooking fats and oils — the published retail measure is the Fats and oils (CPI, US) index, at 312.692 in August 2026 (1982-84=100).
  • Last time this happened: when soybeans futures jumped +52.7% (13 Jan 2012 → 4 Sep 2012), cooking fats and oils moved Jan 2012 (234.252) → Sep 2012 (233.223, −0.4%) → Dec 2012 (231.540, −1.2%) (BLS CUUR0000SEFS).
  • Other forces were pushing too: The fats-and-oils basket spans palm, canola and other oils — palm oil prices fell through 2012; substitution across oils dilutes any soybean-only signal.
  • Thin proxy and the honest lesson: a 53% soybean spike left the broad US fats-and-oils index flat-to-down. No published US lag study for soybeans → retail fats/oils was found, so no lag window is stated.

BLS Consumer Price Index — CPI-U, Fats and oils, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted (CUUR0000SEFS)

Where it comes from, and how it reaches your wallet

Soybeans is in your everyday life as your cooking oil.

Circle size ∝ share of world exports — country area does not imply volume

Top exporters
Ranked by share of world exports (2024 trade value).

Brazil

53.6% of world soybeans exports · 2024 trade value

Top 3 exporters: 88.3% of world exports.

Brazil accounts for 53.6% of the world's exported soybeans by value — a disruption here travels through the buyers and companies below.

See who depends on it ↓

Documented supply-chain relationships — independent of your scenario assumptions.

Soybeans
Soybean crushers and vegetable oil

cooking oil · vegetable oil · margarine · biodiesel

Soymeal, animal feed and meat

soybean meal · animal feed · chicken · pork

A soybeans supply shock would likely first appear in futures and cash bids — timing and size are not established in our sources.

Trade structure

Critical exporters & importers

2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag

Top exporters

  • Brazildominant

    53.6% of world exports

  • United Statesdominant

    30.7% of world exports

  • Paraguay

    4% of world exports

  • Canada

    3.1% of world exports

  • Argentina

    2.3% of world exports

Next tier: Ukraine (1.7%), Uruguay (1.5%)

Top importers

  • China

    59.2% of world imports67.7% from Brazil

  • Argentina

    3.9% of world imports89.4% from Paraguay

  • Spain

    3.1% of world imports71.8% from Brazil

  • Mexico

    2.4% of world imports63.9% from United States

  • Thailand

    2.3% of world imports85.3% from Brazil

An importer is “critical” here by share of world soybeans imports; the per-exporter dependency underneath is what makes a shock travel. 2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag — annual data, 1–2y lag.

Moves through: Strait of Malacca · Suez Canal · Panama Canal

Pick a shock, move the sliders, see what it would mean.

Market stress data as of Nov 9, 2026 from the commodity supply-risk monitor.

Soybeans — market stress 2/10 (Muted) | Morrowfly