Vanilla
We don't have an honest retail series for this yet — BLS doesn't publish a retail vanilla price series.
US scope. We show a retail endpoint only when a published BLS series measures it honestly.
In your life
The verdict
Vanilla is cooling off.
El Niño is shifting growing weather worldwide.
CoolingIllustrative scenario. Not a prediction. Not financial advice.
The board
- This week
- No sharp move this week
- This year
- No full year of prices yet
- Where it comes from
- Madagascar, France and Uganda grow 75% of the world's vanilla — concentrated.
The 0–10 stress score and the full evidence sit under “How we know” below.
How we knowStress scores, exporters, routes, spike history, and the disruption model — analyst layer.
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Vanilla
What world events mean for vanilla — the exporters, the routes, and the retail endpoint.
Market stress
0/10Muted
12-month price change
—
No free price series is published for this commodity
Top exporter
63.8%
Madagascar · of world exports
In your life
Vanilla
We don't have an honest retail series for this yet — BLS doesn't publish a retail vanilla price series.
US scope. We show a retail endpoint only when a published BLS series measures it honestly.
Where it comes from, and how it reaches your wallet
Vanilla is in your everyday life as your ice cream.
Circle size ∝ share of world exports — country area does not imply volume
Madagascar
63.8% of world vanilla exports · 2024 trade value
Top 3 exporters: 74.8% of world exports.
Madagascar accounts for 63.8% of the world's exported vanilla by value — a disruption here travels through the buyers and companies below.
What-if presets
Documented supply-chain relationships — independent of your scenario assumptions.
Vanilla
Flavor houses and ingredient suppliers
natural vanilla flavorings · vanilla extract for food manufacturers
No documented company exposure in our sources for Retail extract and finished foods.
A vanilla supply shock would likely first appear in futures and cash bids — timing and size are not established in our sources.
Trade structure
Critical exporters & importers
2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lagTop exporters
Madagascardominant
63.8% of world exports
France
6.1% of world exports
Uganda
4.9% of world exports
Canada
3.8% of world exports
Indonesia
3.2% of world exports
Next tier: Germany (3.1%), Netherlands (2.5%)
Top importers
34% of world imports64.3% from Madagascar
22.8% of world imports81.1% from Madagascar
8.5% of world imports64.1% from Madagascar
5.8% of world imports75.2% from Madagascar
5% of world imports75.5% from Madagascar
An importer is “critical” here by share of world vanilla imports; the per-exporter dependency underneath is what makes a shock travel. 2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag — annual data, 1–2y lag.
Moves through: Mozambique Channel
Pick a shock, move the sliders, see what it would mean.
Market stress data as of Nov 9, 2026 from the commodity supply-risk monitor.