Chokepoint
Cape of Good Hope
Every commodity below names Cape of Good Hope in its sourced corridor data. Shares are 2024 trade structure — exposure, not a forecast. Where a route share is unknown, no sourced figure was found; unknown is not zero.
Palm oil
1 lane through these watersCape of Good Hope
Serves Indonesia, Malaysia
Route share unknown — Fallback lane by nature (Suez/Red Sea fallback); no stable share exists. Corridor-share research (Sep 2026): no commodity-specific corridor figure found in public sources -- not zero, just unsourced.
Top exporters worldwide
Indonesia
48.6% of world exports
Malaysia
34.1% of world exports
Netherlands
2% of world exports
Thailand
1.9% of world exports
Papua New Guinea
1.6% of world exports
Scenarios that shock this lane
What if this El Niño is the strongest since 1950? · Indonesia + Malaysia
87.4% of Pakistan’s palm oil imports come from Indonesia
84.8% of United States’s palm oil imports come from Indonesia
65.4% of China’s palm oil imports come from Indonesia
53.1% of India’s palm oil imports come from Indonesia
29.4% of Netherlands’s palm oil imports come from Malaysia
Sugar
1 lane through these watersCape of Good Hope
Serves Brazil, Thailand, Australia
Route share unknown — Fallback lane by nature (Suez/Red Sea fallback); no stable share exists. Corridor-share research (Sep 2026): no commodity-specific corridor figure found in public sources -- not zero, just unsourced.
Top exporters worldwide
Brazil
47.4% of world exports
Thailand
6.3% of world exports
India
5% of world exports
France
4% of world exports
Australia
4% of world exports
Scenarios that shock this lane
What if Brazil's harvests falter? · Brazil
98.9% of India’s sugar imports come from Brazil
89.9% of United Arab Emirates’s sugar imports come from Brazil
81.9% of China’s sugar imports come from Brazil
61.1% of Indonesia’s sugar imports come from Brazil
28.4% of United States’s sugar imports come from Brazil
Illustrative scenario lens — not a prediction, not financial advice.