Soybeans
QUIETStress 3/10
- Sorriso: week-ahead forecast shows severe deficit rainfall
- Rosario: severe deficit rainfall — 32% of the 30-day normal
- Harbin: severe deficit rainfall — 36% of the 30-day normal
Guided scenario
What if low water chokes the Panama Canal again?
About a quarter of US soybean exports transit the Panama Canal. Model the delay.
1The setup
About 26% of US soybean exports transit the Panama Canal (farmdoc daily, FY2022 baseline) — the lane from the US Gulf toward Asia. In 2023–24 low water cut daily transits roughly in half. A choked canal doesn't destroy soybeans; it stops the clock. This guide walks through what the monitor is seeing right now, how the lane works, and lets you model a squeeze yourself.
2Right now
Monitor data as of Sep 24, 2026. Scores are observed readings, not forecasts.
3The exposure
- Brazil53.6%
- United States30.7%
- Paraguay4.0%
- Canada3.1%
- Argentina2.3%
US → Panama Canal
26%of the measured lane transits the Panama Canal
Share of US soybean exports transiting the Panama Canal, FY2022 (farmdoc daily, U. of Illinois). Brazilian soy to Asia is not included. The 2023–24 canal drought cut transits sharply.
How the shock travels
Follow the shock downstream — from the soybeans market, through processors, to the shelf. These are the usual stages, not this scenario's outcome: exposure at each step, never a prediction.
Day 0: soybean futures spike
timing not establishedLag basis: lag not established in sources reviewed
soybean futuresSoybean crushers and vegetable oil
timing not establishedLag basis: lag not established in sources reviewed
cooking oilvegetable oilmargarinebiodieselArcher-Daniels-Midland
ADMAg Services and Oilseeds segment crushes oilseeds into vegetable oils and oilseed protein meal; Carbohydrate Solutions converts corn and wheat into sweeteners, starches and ethanol
Soymeal, animal feed and meat
typically months (length not precisely quantified) →Lag basis: CRS Farm-to-Food Price Dynamics (R40621): time lags in retail price response to farm price changes are generally months in length, even for perishables like milk, meat, and fresh fruits and vegetables
soybean mealanimal feedchickenporkTyson Foods
TSNCorn, soybean meal and other feed ingredients represented roughly 61% of the cost of growing a live chicken in fiscal 2023
Source: Tyson Foods FY2023 10-K
Illustrative scenario. Not a prediction. Not financial advice. Company entries describe factual exposure to the commodity — not a view on any stock.
Trade map
Who ships it, who can’t do without it
2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lagSourced trade structure — the scenario’s shock geography at country resolution. Exposure, not a forecast.
Soybeans · United States
Top exporters
Brazildominant
53.6% of world exports
United Statesdominant
30.7% of world exports
Paraguay
4% of world exports
Canada
3.1% of world exports
Argentina
2.3% of world exports
Note: soya beans
Exposed importers
Shocked exporters: United States
63.9% of Mexico’s soybeans imports come from United States
27.1% of Spain’s soybeans imports come from United States
25.9% of China’s soybeans imports come from United States
Panama Canal
via Panama Canal · 26% of US soybean exports transiting the Panama Canal
Source: farmdoc daily (University of Illinois), 'Ripple effects of shipping lane disruptions on U.S. agriculture', FY2022
How we map this
Exporter and importer shares are 2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag from UN Comtrade and OEC (BACI/CEPII); an importer counts as exposed when ≥20% of its soybeans imports come from a shocked exporter. The shock geography is the scenario’s own focus selection. Annual data with a 1–2 year reporting lag — the structure moves slowly, the prices don’t.
4Adjust the assumptions
30d
Historical check: No close soybeans episode matches these settings — no historical range to compare this setting against.
How long low water throttles transits. Duration changes the timeline — never the flow share.
Resolution: Days the lane stays closed or throttled
7.8
lane-days disrupted
30d \u00d7 26% of the lane via the Panama Canal
What the delay looks like
A shipment that would have transited the Panama Canal on day one waits roughly the full 30 days. Rerouting avoids the queue at the cost of a longer voyage. Either way the shipment is delayed, not destroyed.
Delayed ≠ lost — the disruption stops the clock on shipments; it doesn't destroy soybeans.
What this would have meant
At these settings, the Panama Canal stays closed for 30 days. About 26% of the measured lane flows through it, so roughly 7.8 lane-days of shipments are delayed — delayed, not destroyed: the cargo still exists, it just arrives late.
No close historical match in our records — this scenario is outside our recorded experience.
What this assumes
- Low-water disruption \u2014 30 days \u00d7 26% of the lane = lane-days disrupted. Duration changes the timeline, never the flow share.
- Delayed ≠ lost: the cargo still exists — only its arrival is late.
- Share of US soybean exports transiting the Panama Canal, FY2022 (farmdoc daily, U. of Illinois). Brazilian soy to Asia is not included. The 2023–24 canal drought cut transits sharply.
- Illustrative arithmetic from your stated assumptions — not a price forecast.
Analog check
No close historical match in our records — this scenario is outside our recorded experience.
Want the full controls? Reopen soybeans on its commodity page.
5What happened before
For perspective, not prediction
Ever Given blocks the Suez Canal (March 2021)
Mar 23 – Mar 29, 2021
“A 400m ship blocked Suez for six days and 400+ vessels queued — oil wobbled $2.60 and reversed, and no verifiable agricultural price reaction followed. A timing shock, not a supply shock. Kept in the dataset only as an explicitly limited non-attribution case.”
Price moves were observed around the event — not proof the event caused the entire move.
Read the full recordRed Sea / Houthi shipping disruption (2023–24)
Nov 2023 – Apr 2024
“Houthi attacks rerouted a third of Red Sea container traffic and roughly halved Suez trade — and grain prices fell anyway on record supply. The freight shock lived in shipping rates, not commodity prices.”
Price moves were observed around the event — not proof the event caused the entire move.
Read the full recordWhat to watch
- Daily Canal transits — the 2023–24 drought cut them from ~35 to ~18 per day
- Water-level reports for Gatun Lake and the Canal watershed
- Reported waiting times for grain ships at the Canal
- Whether bulk carriers are reported rerouting via the Cape or Suez
Curated by Morrowfly — these are things to check, not monitor conditions.
Make it yours
Your call, in your words — recorded privately on this device, with a check-back in 30, 60, or 90 days.
Tell us
Spotted something wrong, confusing, or missing? It goes straight into our improvement queue.
Something off? Tell us.
Read by a human · never auto-published