containers
INCOMPLETECoverage incomplete — the monitor is missing feeds for containers, so no score is shown. Incomplete coverage is not zero risk.
Guided scenario
What if a US port strike shuts the East and Gulf Coast ports?
The 36 ILA ports handle about 55% of US container imports by volume. Three days was absorbed in 2024; 2002's 10-day lockout took months to clear. Model a longer one.
1The setup
The 36 ILA ports on the East and Gulf Coast, Maine to Texas, handled about 55% of US container imports by volume in the 12 months to Sep 2024 — per Vizion Tradeview container-booking data, a platform estimate rather than port-authority TEU figures. The closest measured analog is the ILA strike of Oct 1–3, 2024: 45,000 workers out for 3 days, ≥54 container ships queued, and a final settlement of ~62% wages over six years. For the long tail, 2002's 10–11-day West Coast lockout took months to clear and knocked affected firms' stock prices about 8%. Three days was absorbed; 10–11 days caused multi-month backlogs — so the grading line is 7 continuous days of halted operations.
2Right now
Monitor data as of Sep 24, 2026. Scores are observed readings, not forecasts.
How the shock travels
Container pile-up
≥54 container ships queued outside ports within 3 days in Oct 2024 (Everstream Analytics); each strike week removes 443,000–775,000 TEU of effective capacity, tightening global vessel supply if prolonged.
Evidence: Everstream Analytics ship counts + Sea-Intelligence capacity estimates, Oct 2024
Backlog clearing
Clearing takes 3–5× the strike length: Xeneta estimated 2–3 weeks to normalize after the 3-day 2024 strike, while the 10-day 2002 West Coast lockout took months to clear.
Evidence: Xeneta estimates via Reuters (2024) + NRF/Logistics Management on the 2002 lockout
Retail to consumer
Retail is roughly half of all container shipping volume — Walmart, IKEA and Home Depot are heavy East/Gulf users — so disruptions ahead of holiday season risk shortages from bananas to auto parts and spot freight surges.
Evidence: Reuters via gCaptain, Oct 2024 — retail ≈ half of container volume
West Coast diversion overload
Shippers diverted cargo to the West Coast pre-strike in 2024, and Everstream warned West Coast capacity would be “quickly inundated,” causing longer vessel waits and rail delays — the safety valve has limited headroom.
Evidence: Everstream via Inside Logistics, Oct 2024
Caveat: Unmeasured as a 2024 outcome — the strike ended in 3 days before diversion overload materialized
Wage-floor settlement
The 2024 deal raised ILA wages ~62% over six years with automation limits — a new structural labor-cost floor at East/Gulf ports.
Evidence: FreightAmigo/USMX, Jan 2025 — 62% wages + automation limits; settlement terms confirmed
Caveat: Cost pass-through to freight rates not measured — settlement terms confirmed, price effect unverified
3The exposure
Coverage incomplete — the monitor does not track exporter shares for container shipping. The exposure for this scenario is sized from the declared capacity snapshot in the “Adjust the assumptions” section below instead.
Shipping lane
What passes through US East & Gulf Coast ports (36 ILA ports)
lane throughput · not a goods flowA port strike is a gateway-concentration shock: the exposure is the ports' share of US container volume, not a bilateral trade flow. Exposure here is throughput concentration — how much shipping uses the lane — not who imports from whom.
~55%
Scenario baseline (ILA/USMX statements), 2024
Share of US container imports by volume handled at the 36 ILA ports
US container imports by volume — East & Gulf Coast ports under the ILA master contract.
8.70M TEU
Port Authority of NY & NJ, 2024 At a Glance, 2024
Port of New York & New Jersey throughput
annual port throughput, 2024 — Busiest East Coast cargo gateway; 3rd-busiest US year on record. source
5.55M TEU
Port Authority of NY & NJ, 2024 At a Glance (US port rankings), 2024
Port of Savannah throughput
annual port throughput, 2024
4.46M TEU
Port Authority of NY & NJ, 2024 At a Glance (US port rankings), 2024
Port Houston throughput
annual port throughput, 2024
3.50M TEU
Port Authority of NY & NJ, 2024 At a Glance (US port rankings), 2024
Port of Virginia throughput
annual port throughput, 2024
~50%
Reuters via gCaptain, 2024
Share of all container volume moved by retail shippers
container shipping volume, context — Walmart, IKEA, Home Depot are heavy East/Gulf users — context, not exposure.
Combined East/Gulf TEU share of all-US port throughput: unknown — No single sourced aggregate; port-level TEU shown instead.
How we map this
Container shipping is a service, not a goods flow: there is no honest HS-code bilateral to attach to a strait. So this card measures the lane itself — transit shares, port TEU, gateway concentration — each figure sourced with its vintage. What a disruption does to prices or shortages is not modeled here.
4Adjust the assumptions
100%
Historical check: No container shipping episode on record — no historical range to compare this setting against.
What share of the exposed capacity is disrupted.
Resolution: Share of container operations halted at the 36 ILA ports (ILA/USMX statements)
Share of all US imports by volume in the hazard zone
0%50%100% all US imports by volume
US container imports by volume through ILA-affected ports — 55.0% of all US imports by volume
Exposed under your assumptions: 55.0% (55.0% × 10000% severity) — verified route share factored in; see “What this assumes”.
The hatched area is modeled from your assumptions, not a measured outcome.
Source: Vizion Tradeview container-booking data, 12 months to Sep 2024 — platform estimate, not port-authority TEU data
Exposed ≠ lost — affected trade can reroute, draw stocks, or substitute. This sizes the exposure, not the damage.
14d
Historical check: No container shipping episode on record — no historical range to compare this setting against.
Resolution: Days container operations are halted at the 36 ILA East/Gulf Coast ports
60d
Your assumption — not a measured buffer.
Resolution: Assumed days of stockpile cover — an assumption, not a measured buffer
Disruption timeline
090180270365 days
Disruption: 14 days
Assumed cover: 60 days — your assumptionYour assumption
Covered by stockpiles— the assumed cover outlasts the disruption
What this would have meant
At these settings, about 55.0% of the world's container shipping exports would be exposed to the disruption, and the 60-day assumed stockpile cover outlasts the 14-day disruption.
No close historical match in our records — this scenario is outside our recorded experience.
What this assumes
- Exposure: Target share 55.0% × severity 100% = 55.0% exposed.
- Uncovered days: max(0, 14 − 60) = 0.
- Exposed ≠ lost: affected trade can reroute, draw down stocks, or find substitutes — this number sizes the exposure, not the damage.
- Exporter share ≠ spare capacity: rivals may not be able to surge supply to fill the gap.
- Stockpile cover of 60 days is your assumption, not a measured buffer.
- Results are physical-exposure arithmetic from your stated assumptions — not a price forecast.
Analog check
No close historical match in our records — this scenario is outside our recorded experience.
Want the full controls? Reopen container shipping on its commodity page.
5What happened before
For perspective, not prediction
What to watch
- ILA/USMX joint statements: the grading line is ≥7 continuous days of halted container operations (2024: 3 days absorbed; 2002: 10–11 days, multi-month backlog)
- Queued vessels outside East/Gulf ports — ≥54 in 3 days in Oct 2024 (Everstream Analytics)
- Sea-Intelligence's weekly TEU capacity-loss estimates (443k–775k TEU/week in 2024)
- West Coast port and rail congestion — the diversion safety valve has limited headroom (unmeasured in 2024)
- Retail inventory coverage ahead of holiday season — retail is ~half of container volume
Curated by Morrowfly — these are things to check, not monitor conditions.
Make it yours
Your call, in your words — recorded privately on this device, with a check-back in 30, 60, or 90 days.
Tell us
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Read by a human · never auto-published