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The verdict

What if Brazil's coffee regions bake again?

For this scenario, about 24.2% of the world's coffee exports would be exposed to the disruption, and the disruption runs 90 days against 60 days of assumed stockpile cover, leaving about 30 days beyond what the assumed stockpile covers.

In the recorded Brazil drought, 2024–25 analog, coffee futures rise +95.7% in 425 days (Jan 2024 → Mar 2025), and for consumers: ground roast coffee (US) rose +20.6% to +32.8% over 0–12 months. Illustrative — what happened then, not what will happen now.

Your settings aren't an exact match: your 70% disruption setting implies a large move, while the episode's futures move was +95.7% (extreme).

Exposed ≠ lost. Illustrative scenario. Not a prediction. Not financial advice.

Model the shock

70%

Share of the focus exporter's shipments disrupted

90d

Days the disruption lasts

60d

Assumed days of stockpile cover — an assumption, not a measured buffer

What to watch

  • Drought reports from Brazil's coffee regions (Minas Gerais, São Paulo)
  • CONAB and IBGE production estimates for the Brazilian harvest
  • Arabica futures relative to the November 2024 high of $3.35/lb

Evidence: Curated by Morrowfly — these are things to check, not monitor conditions.

Make your call

Not a bet, not financial advice. Write your one-line read — we check back on January 13, 2027 and grade it in public.

How we model thisThe full evidence, assumptions, and arithmetic — analyst layer.
Guided scenario

What if Brazil's coffee regions bake again?

Brazil is a third of world coffee exports. Explore what another 2024-style drought would expose.

1The setup

Brazil alone is 34.5% of world coffee exports by value (2024 vintage) — the largest exporter by far. Its 2024 drought, the worst in 40+ years, sent arabica to its highest price since 1977. This guide walks through what the monitor is seeing right now, how exposed the market is, and lets you model a drought yourself.

Market check · Polymarket

What the market thinks

Peak Severe Drought in Minas Gerais during the Coffee Growing Season?

Polymarket · live contract

under 5%

38%

5% to 19.99%

19%

20% to 39.99%

28%

40% to 59.99%

37%

60% or more

13%

The market's favorite outcome is “under 5%” at 38% — you say the real chance is…

Your take lives on this device only. Illustrative — not a bet, not advice.

Closest live contract — severe-drought coverage in Minas Gerais, Brazil's coffee heartland. It is not a contract on coffee prices.

$15.8K traded · resolves by 2027-05-01Odds as of Nov 9, 2026, 16:09 UTCView this market on Polymarket →

Illustrative only — not financial advice, not a recommendation.

2Adjust the assumptions

70%

Historical check: The closest episode, Brazil drought, 2024–25, saw coffee futures move +95.7% (extreme band); your 70% disruption setting sits in the large band.

What share of Brazil’s coffee exports is disrupted.

Resolution: Share of the focus exporter's shipments disrupted

90d

Historical check: The closest episode, Brazil drought, 2024–25, lasted 365 days (long); your 90-day duration sits in the medium band.

Resolution: Days the disruption lasts

60d

Your assumption — not a measured buffer.

Resolution: Assumed days of stockpile cover — an assumption, not a measured buffer

What this assumes
  • Exposure: Target share 34.5% × severity 70% = 24.2% exposed.
  • Uncovered days: max(0, 90 − 60) = 30.
  • Exposed ≠ lost: affected trade can reroute, draw down stocks, or find substitutes — this number sizes the exposure, not the damage.
  • Exporter share ≠ spare capacity: rivals may not be able to surge supply to fill the gap.
  • Stockpile cover of 60 days is your assumption, not a measured buffer.
  • Results are physical-exposure arithmetic from your stated assumptions — not a price forecast.
Share of world exports

Brazil coffee — 34.5% of world Coffee exports (Share of global export value (USD) — 2024 vintage)

Exposed under your assumptions: 24.2% (34.5% × 70% severity)

The hatched area is modeled from your assumptions, not a measured outcome.

Exposed ≠ lost — affected trade can reroute, draw stocks, or substitute. This sizes the exposure, not the damage.

Disruption timeline
090180270365 days
Disruption: 90 days
Assumed cover: 60 days — your assumptionYour assumption

30 days buyers can't ride out — not automatically a physical shortage

What this would have meant

For this scenario, about 24.2% of the world's coffee exports would be exposed to the disruption, and the disruption runs 90 days against 60 days of assumed stockpile cover, leaving about 30 days beyond what the assumed stockpile covers.

In the recorded Brazil drought, 2024–25 analog, coffee futures rise +95.7% in 425 days (Jan 2024 → Mar 2025), and for consumers: ground roast coffee (US) rose +20.6% to +32.8% over 0–12 months. Illustrative — what happened then, not what will happen now.

Your settings aren't an exact match: your 70% disruption setting implies a large move, while the episode's futures move was +95.7% (extreme).

Analog check

Your settings look closest to Brazil drought, 2024–25 (same commodity, same shock type, similar supply concentration). The episode's measured moves, caveats included: coffee futures +95.7% in 425 days (Jan 2024 → Mar 2025); Ground roast coffee (US): +20.6% to +32.8% over 0–12 months. Vietnam's robusta drought lifted robusta prices in parallel; broad 2024–25 food-at-home inflation also pushed shelf prices..

Only about 11.8¢ of every US consumer food dollar — and 18.5¢ of every food-at-home dollar — reaches the farm (USDA, 2024) — that's a ceiling, not a prediction: margins can absorb a spike or amplify it.

Illustrative — what happened then, not what will happen now. Your scenario differs: your 70% disruption setting implies a large move, while the episode's futures move was +95.7% (extreme).

Read the full record
How we matched this
  • Commodity: requirement — Both are coffee — non-coffee episodes are excluded outright.
  • Shock type: 2/2 — Both are a drought shock.
  • Size: 0/1 — Your 70% disruption setting band: large; episode futures moved +95.7% (Jan 2024 → Mar 2025) — band: extreme. Severity is % of shipments disrupted, not a price move: this banding is a v1 matching heuristic.
  • Duration: 0/1 — Your disruption: 90-day (medium); episode: 365-day (long) — Apr 2024–Mar 2025 drought window (repo event record brazil-coffee-drought-2024).
  • Supply concentration: 1/1 — Your hazard zone: 34.5% of world exports (high); episode disrupted ~33% (high) — Brazil is about a third of world coffee exports (Conab, Sep 2024 — repo event record brazil-coffee-drought-2024).

Score 3/5 — partial analog (mismatches named above).

Want the full controls? Reopen coffee on its commodity page.

3Right now

Coffee

QUIET

Stress 3/10

  • KCZ26.NYB Dec-2026 backwardation (flattening) — prompt premium, inventories tight
  • Dak Lak: severe deficit rainfall — 26% of the 30-day normal
  • Dak Lak: week-ahead forecast shows dry rainfall

Monitor data as of Nov 9, 2026. Scores are observed readings, not forecasts.

4The exposure

  • Brazil
    34.5%
  • Vietnam
    12.1%
  • Colombia
    10.9%
  • Indonesia
    4.6%
  • Ethiopia
    4.3%
Share of global export value (USD) — 2024 vintage. Amber = the scenario focus. Ranked by share.

How the shock travels

Follow the shock downstream — from the coffee market, through processors, to the shelf. These are the usual stages, not this scenario's outcome: exposure at each step, never a prediction.

  1. Day 0: coffee futures spike

    timing not established

    Lag basis: Day 0 is the shock itself; no lag applies.

    green (unroasted) coffee beans

  2. Roasters and manufacturers buy green coffee and reset list prices

    timing not established

    Lag basis: lag not established in sources reviewed

    bagged ground coffeeinstant coffee

  3. Retail shelf and coffee shops

    timing not established

    Lag basis: lag not established in sources reviewed

    grocery-store coffeecoffee-shop drinks

    Starbucks

    SBUX

    Green coffee is a core input: as of Sep 29, 2024, Starbucks had committed to purchasing $180 million of green coffee under fixed-price contracts and an estimated $929 million under price-to-be-fixed contracts (FY2024 10-K).

    Source: Starbucks FY2024 10-K (SEC)

    Nestlé

    NESN

    Coffee is a reported product category: in 9M 2024, coffee sales grew at a mid-single-digit rate, 'driven by Nescafé, particularly in ready-to-drink offerings' (Nestlé 9M 2024 sales release).

    Source: Nestlé nine-month 2024 sales release (GlobeNewswire)

Illustrative scenario. Not a prediction. Not financial advice. Company entries describe factual exposure to the commodity — not a view on any stock.

Trade map

Who ships it, who can’t do without it

2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag

Sourced trade structure — the scenario’s shock geography at country resolution. Exposure, not a forecast.

Coffee · Brazil

Top exporters

  • Brazildominant

    34.5% of world exports

  • Vietnam

    12.1% of world exports

  • Colombia

    10.9% of world exports

  • Indonesia

    4.6% of world exports

  • Ethiopia

    4.3% of world exports

Note: prefer 090111 (not roasted) for origin mapping; 090121 roasted trade is EU-centric and distorts origin

Exposed importers

Shocked exporters: Brazil

Brazil Atlantic coffee exports

via Santos port / North Atlantic

No single corridor — share not applicable — Brazilian coffee exports load at Santos and other Atlantic ports; no single strait or canal applies. No route share applies -- this is not missing research.

How we map this

Exporter and importer shares are 2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag from UN Comtrade and OEC (BACI/CEPII); an importer counts as exposed when ≥20% of its coffee imports come from a shocked exporter. The shock geography is the scenario’s own focus selection. Annual data with a 1–2 year reporting lag — the structure moves slowly, the prices don’t.

5What happened before

For perspective, not prediction

Brazil’s 2024 drought and the arabica futures rally

Apr 2024 – Mar 2025

“ICE arabica Coffee C (KC=F) rose 95.7% from Jan 2024 to Mar 2025 month-end, then fell 19.2% by June. This is not a robusta benchmark, and these windows do not separate Brazil’s weather from inventories, demand, positioning, or conditions in other origins.”

Price moves were observed around the event — not proof the event caused the entire move.

Read the full record

El Niño: different episodes, crops, and price benchmarks

Recurring — 2009-10, 2015-16, 2023-24

“Prices moved in different directions during the selected El Niño windows. These observations do not measure El Niño’s effect: KC=F tracks arabica rather than Vietnam’s robusta, and ZR=F tracks US rough rice rather than Asian rice export prices.”

Price moves were observed around the event — not proof the event caused the entire move.

Read the full record

What to watch

  • Drought reports from Brazil's coffee regions (Minas Gerais, São Paulo)
  • CONAB and IBGE production estimates for the Brazilian harvest
  • Arabica futures relative to the November 2024 high of $3.35/lb
  • Reservoir and rainfall anomalies reported for southeast Brazil

Curated by Morrowfly — these are things to check, not monitor conditions.

Make it yours

Your call, in your words — recorded privately on this device, with a check-back in 30, 60, or 90 days.

Tell us

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Read by a human · never auto-published

Illustrative scenario. Not a prediction. Not financial advice.

Monitor data as of Nov 9, 2026 · Trade vintage 2024 · Scoring v3.4

Where this happened before

Related scenarios

What if Brazil's coffee regions bake again? | Morrowfly