Scenarios
What if Hormuz stays choked through winter?
The strait has effectively collapsed since the Feb 28, 2026 strikes on Iran: EIA put 2Q26 transits at 4.9 mb/d against a 21.6 mb/d 4Q25 baseline, and Kpler's strongest August week showed 4.26 mb/d of crude leaving. Transits run at 3–7 vessels a day, and the main Saudi bypass pipeline was shut by drone attack in September. This guide models how long the choke persists through winter, whether the remaining ~4–5 mb/d of crude flows erode further, and how much stockpile cover buffers the gap — while flagging the widely disputed flow figures.
of global maritime oil trade (crude + petroleum products) moves through the Strait of Hormuz
Basis: global maritime oil trade (crude + petroleum products) · Source: Morrowfly chokepoint lens
The full Shock Path
01 · Shock
02 · Transmission
03 · Exposure
04 · Second-order
05 · View
06 · Outcome & Lesson
Select any card to see its facts and where the record keeps them.
Its neighborhood in the graph
The records one step away from this story in the knowledge graph. The Graph draws all of them at once.
Event · 15 links
June 2025 Iran–Israel/US conflict ("Twelve-Day War")
Morrowfly tracks 17 commodities — crude oil joined the watchlist in September 2026; natural gas is still not tracked, so the gas-price channel sits outside our series. The channels that did reach our commodities: (1) energy → fertilizer cost — real and the main channel, with Iran and Egypt representing roughly a fifth of global urea trade (CRU); (2) energy → freight and marine-insurance costs on conflict-zone routes — real but brief and second-order for FOB grain prices (StoneX, June 2025); (3) risk pricing — a one-day short-covering bounce in grains (Reuters, June 13, 2025).
Read the event record →Country · 11 links
United States
United States is tied to 19 tracked commodities and 69 recorded trade dependencies, 22 of them critical.
See the country page →Scenario · 9 links
Middle East Energy Escalation
The US-Iran war is underway since February 28, 2026; Hormuz tanker traffic has slowed to a trickle, and a mid-September 2026 drone attack shut Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline, which had been moving 4-5 million barrels a day. This scenario models NEW physical damage to Gulf energy infrastructure beyond what has already happened — to processing plants, export terminals, or pipelines on either side of the Gulf. Tension, threats, or shipping rerouting alone do not count: the dial only counts operator- or EIA-confirmed physical capacity destroyed.
Open the guide →Country · 4 links
United Arab Emirates
United Arab Emirates is tied to 1 tracked commodities and 2 recorded trade dependencies, 1 of them critical.
See the country page →Country · 4 links
Iraq
Iraq is tied to 2 tracked commodities and 5 recorded trade dependencies, 3 of them critical.
See the country page →Country · 4 links
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia is tied to 2 tracked commodities and 10 recorded trade dependencies, 2 of them critical.
See the country page →Evidence · 2 links
Crude volumes recovered but don't count
Evidence in the record bearing on Crude. Cited by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?.
Evidence · 2 links
June recovery peaked at half the threshold
Evidence in the record bearing on Strait of Hormuz. Cited by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?.
Evidence · 2 links
Portwatch at 3.1/day vs 60 needed
Evidence in the record bearing on Strait of Hormuz. Cited by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?.
Evidence · 2 links
Traffic flat at rock bottom since August
Evidence in the record bearing on Strait of Hormuz. Cited by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?.
Evidence · 2 links
War-risk insurance still prohibitive
Evidence in the record bearing on Strait of Hormuz. Cited by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?.
Every figure on this page comes from Morrowfly's records: the event records, the chokepoint lens, the trade dependency join, the positions book, and the odds snapshot, joined in the knowledge graph (4 featured stories shown here). Facts render solid; views render dashed; nothing is drawn that the record does not carry.