Scenarios
What if Black Sea grain stops?
Russia and Ukraine together are a quarter of world wheat exports. Explore the exposure.
of global wheat exports moves through the Turkish Straits
Basis: global wheat exports · Source: Morrowfly chokepoint lens
The full Shock Path
01 · Shock
02 · Transmission
03 · Exposure
04 · Second-order
05 · View
06 · Outcome & Lesson
Select any card to see its facts and where the record keeps them.
Its neighborhood in the graph
The records one step away from this story in the knowledge graph. The Graph draws all of them at once.
Event · 25 links
El Niño: different episodes, crops, and price benchmarks
Three El Niño episodes, dated from NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index tables: 2009-10 (moderate-strong, ONI peak 1.6 in late 2009), 2015-16 (very strong, ONI peak 2.5-2.6 — one of the three strongest on record), and 2023-24 (strong, ONI peak about 2.0). Each rewired rainfall the same way — dry Southeast Asia and Australia, wet southern South America, weak Indian monsoon — but landed on very different stock and supply situations.
Read the event record →Event · 15 links
June 2025 Iran–Israel/US conflict ("Twelve-Day War")
Morrowfly tracks 17 commodities — crude oil joined the watchlist in September 2026; natural gas is still not tracked, so the gas-price channel sits outside our series. The channels that did reach our commodities: (1) energy → fertilizer cost — real and the main channel, with Iran and Egypt representing roughly a fifth of global urea trade (CRU); (2) energy → freight and marine-insurance costs on conflict-zone routes — real but brief and second-order for FOB grain prices (StoneX, June 2025); (3) risk pricing — a one-day short-covering bounce in grains (Reuters, June 13, 2025).
Read the event record →Scenario · 14 links
Severe La Nina
La Niña's crop damage concentrates in Argentina and southern Brazil — corn and soy. Model a severe event. Note: a strong El Niño is underway right now, so this is the counterfactual.
Open the guide →Scenario · 12 links
Brazil Crops
Brazil tops world exports of coffee, sugar, and soybeans. Explore what a bad season would expose.
Open the guide →Country · 11 links
Brazil
Brazil is tied to 3 tracked commodities and 15 recorded trade dependencies, 4 of them critical.
See the country page →Country · 11 links
United States
United States is tied to 19 tracked commodities and 69 recorded trade dependencies, 22 of them critical.
See the country page →Scenario · 11 links
Us Corn
The US is the top corn exporter. Explore what another 2012 would expose.
Open the guide →Event · 11 links
Red Sea / Houthi shipping disruption (2023–24)
Attacks on commercial shipping led vessels to reroute around southern Africa, increasing voyage distance, time, and insurance exposure. Contemporary reporting cited substantial extra fuel costs (Xeneta) and continued but disrupted Russian grain transit.
Read the event record →Chokepoint · 10 links
Suez Canal
5 tracked commodities move through the Suez Canal. Its corridors serve exporters including Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Brazil, Russia.
See the chokepoint page →Scenario · 10 links
Europe Heatwave
Maize, the Rhine, and French nuclear power. Model a severe European heatwave — not a wheat shock: 2022's drought helped the wheat harvest.
Open the guide →Scenario · 8 links
India Sugar
India is a top-five sugar exporter. Explore what extended curbs would expose.
Open the guide →Position · 7 links
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31?
WEAK — thinnest edge in slate (7.5pp). Clean re-read after the kill-test's framed version was struck and banned. Base-rate read; no edges on diplomatic positions.
See the position →Every figure on this page comes from Morrowfly's records: the event records, the chokepoint lens, the trade dependency join, the positions book, and the odds snapshot, joined in the knowledge graph (4 featured stories shown here). Facts render solid; views render dashed; nothing is drawn that the record does not carry.