June 2025 Iran–Israel/US conflict ("Twelve-Day War")

What happened

What everyone expected

Observed prices and measurement limits

Evidence and interpretation

How this record has changed

Living document — every material change is logged here, newest first.

1. New evidence2026-11-02

   October outcome data show crude flows normalising in volume while refined products stay tight. Kpler data reported by Reuters put Asia's crude imports at 26.39 million barrels per day in October, up from 24.24 million in September and close to the 27.0 million average of the three months before the Feb 28 attack, with Asia's imports via Hormuz at 7.42 million barrels per day versus a 13.06 million pre-war average. Asia's imports of light and middle distillates were 6.15 million barrels per day, still 10% below the 6.85 million pre-war average, and Singapore gasoil ended Oct 30 at $168.62 a barrel, 84% above its Feb 27 level. Separately, ADNOC's chief executive said on Nov 2 that nearly 1 billion barrels have been drained from global inventories since the Hormuz disruption began; that figure is his statement, not an independent inventory audit.

   Reuters Open Interest, 2026-11-02 (Kpler October Asia crude and distillate imports, Singapore gasoil) · Reuters, 2026-11-02 (ADNOC CEO: nearly 1 billion barrels drained from global inventories)

2. New evidence2026-11-02

   A possible exit ramp appeared, and the market priced it immediately. Iranian negotiators completed three straight days of talks with Qatari mediators in Doha, working on a proposal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days of an agreement with Washington, though major differences remain over Iran's nuclear programme, sanctions relief and security issues, and no agreement has been reached. Brent crude futures fell $3.68, or 3.2%, to $109.75 a barrel by 0407 GMT on Nov 2, and WTI fell $3.43, or 3.3%, to $100.69; OPEC+ had left its December production targets unchanged on Nov 1.

   Reuters Open Interest, Energy Watch, 2026-11-02 (Doha talks, two-day Hormuz reopening proposal, OPEC+ targets unchanged) · Reuters wire via Hathalyoum, 2026-11-02 (Brent $109.75 and WTI $100.69 at 0407 GMT)

3. New evidence2026-11-01

   Iran's IRGC Navy said on Nov 1 that two oil tankers exploded after striking mines while using an unauthorized route through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iranian state media reported by Reuters. Reuters carried the statement as an Iranian claim: the report named no vessels and offered no independent confirmation, so this revision records the claim and Iran's stated restriction regime, not a verified second mine incident.

   Reuters, 2026-11-01 (IRGC Navy says two tankers exploded after hitting mines in Hormuz)

4. New evidence2026-10-30

   Mine warfare in Hormuz moved from allegation to a confirmed first successful strike. Reuters reported on Oct 30, citing three maritime security sources, that a small boat attached two limpet mines to the Panama-flagged tanker Louise 1 on Oct 29, about 25 nautical miles northeast of Oman's Khasab, causing an engine-room fire that temporarily disabled the vessel; UKMTO said the crew was safe, the fire was extinguished, and the ship continued to its next port. Reuters described it as the first successful limpet-mine strike in the waterway since the war began in February, after a September attempt failed to detonate, and said it was not clear who was responsible.

   Reuters via gCaptain, 2026-10-30 (Louise 1 limpet-mine strike, UKMTO advisory)

5. New evidence2026-10-26

   Non-Iranian Gulf flows recovered further in October, sustained only at extraordinary cost. Reuters reported on Oct 22, citing Kpler, that Middle East oil exports averaged 17.3 million barrels per day so far in October, up from 16.4 million in September and above the 16.9 million average in the two months before the Feb 28 strikes, while flows through the Strait of Hormuz hit 11.7 million barrels per day in October, up from 9.75 million in September and about 82% of pre-war levels, and Saudi Red Sea exports averaged 3 million barrels per day. The recovery runs on US-protected convoys sailing close to the Omani coast, with benchmark tanker rates near a record $1.4 million a day, more than 12 times pre-war levels, and tanker insurance at about 10% of cargo value, up from roughly 3% before the war.

   Reuters Open Interest, 2026-10-22 (Kpler October flow data, tanker rates and insurance costs)

6. New evidence2026-10-26

   The cushion that kept Iranian oil revenue flowing despite zero seaborne crude exports is now gone. The Wall Street Journal reported on Oct 22, citing Kpler, that Iran's offshore floating storage, about 135 million barrels located overseas at the start of the war and rebuilt to nearly 90 million barrels after the blockade was lifted in mid-June, fell to less than 1 million barrels by Oct 5 and has since been completely exhausted, leaving no more Iranian oil to discharge to China; Vortexa separately estimated about 6 million barrels of Iranian oil still off Singapore as of Oct 9. CENTCOM put the oil revenue the blockade has denied Tehran at at least $25 billion, and Kpler's head of crude analysis noted oil sales represent around 30% to 40% of Iranian government revenue.

   The Wall Street Journal via LiveMint, 2026-10-22 (Kpler floating storage data, CENTCOM revenue figure)

7. New evidence2026-10-22

   Reported escalation around Gulf energy infrastructure on Oct 22, 2026, recorded as reported headlines, not as facts independently verified by Morrowfly. The Guardian reported on Oct 22 that oil prices jumped to a five-month high as attacks threatened global supply. OilPrice.com reported on Oct 22 that oil prices surged above $111 as Houthis struck Saudi targets. The Guardian also reported on Oct 22 that Iran threatened to strike oil and AI facilities across the Gulf if the US and Israel renew attacks. The New York Post reported on Oct 22 that oil rose above $113 on news of planned Iran strikes. Against that set, Reuters reported on Oct 22 that India's Middle East oil imports returned to pre-war levels in September, at about 2.8 million barrels per day, the highest since February. The Morrowfly commodity monitor scored crude oil ELEVATED on Oct 22, 2026 (total 6, supply 2), up from QUIET (total 3) in the prior run, with BZ=F at $111.93 a barrel as of Oct 22, 2026, up 5.67% over 5 days and 5.0% over 20 days. A Rabobank view carried by VBL GoldFix on Oct 22 described a $40 war premium in oil prices; that is an analyst view, not evidence, and it is not counted as evidence here. This revision makes no forecast. The check-back for this entry is Nov 21, 2026: the observation to test is whether, by that date, Reuters or official reporting confirms physical disruption to Gulf crude production or export flows, as distinct from threats and price moves.

   The Guardian, 2026-10-22 (oil prices jump to five-month high as attacks threaten global supply) · OilPrice.com, 2026-10-22 (oil prices surge above $111 as Houthis strike Saudi targets) · The Guardian, 2026-10-22 (Iran threatens to strike oil and AI facilities across the Gulf if US and Israel renew attacks) · New York Post, 2026-10-22 (oil soars above $113 on Iran strike news) · Reuters, 2026-10-22 (India's Mideast oil imports return to pre-war levels in September) · Morrowfly commodity monitor, dashboard run 2026-10-22 (crude oil score and BZ=F)

8. New evidence2026-10-19

   The blockade held for crude into October but leaked in products. Vortexa data reported by Reuters on Oct 13 show Iran's seaborne crude exports fell to zero in the second week of September — from a 14-day average of 230,000 barrels per day at the start of September — and stayed at zero as of Oct 5; Iranian crude on the water fell to 83 million barrels, with 43 million barrels trapped west of Hormuz, and Iranian LPG exports fell 48% month on month to their lowest since at least January 2023. Reuters reported on Oct 16 the first documented leakage, in products not crude: at least eight LPG tankers totalling an estimated 4.1 million barrels have left the Gulf of Oman since mid-July per UANI, plus one jet-fuel tanker that reached Myanmar in September.

   Reuters, 2026-10-13 (Vortexa report) · Reuters, 2026-10-16 (UANI/SynMax shipping data)

9. New evidence2026-10-12

   Evidence on the record's framing tension: Iranian crude loadings fell from nearly 2 million b/d before the blockade to effectively zero in September, per Kpler, Vortexa and Bloomberg figures cited in an Oct 5 analysis (May was already 260,000-300,000 b/d, the lowest in six years), so the near-prewar Middle East export totals reflect non-Iranian Gulf barrels filling the gap. Arab Gulf crude exports averaged about 16.5 million b/d in September, with the final-week seven-day average near 19.5 million b/d versus about 17 million before the war. On Oct 4, oil minister Mohsen Paknejad's resignation was accepted and NIOC chief Hamid Bovard became acting minister, read as continuity and export-crisis management rather than a policy pivot. About 147 million barrels of Iranian crude were in floating storage in June, with roughly 67 million stranded in the Gulf and Gulf of Oman and stocks holding near that 67 million level through mid-August, which is both Tehran's revenue pressure valve and the target of Washington's 'zero leakage' push.

   Discovery Alert, 5 Oct 2026 (citing Kpler, Vortexa, Bloomberg, Reuters/Kpler via Al Jazeera)

10. New evidence2026-10-12

    Brent stayed above $100 all week on shipping-attack risk but direction shifted with the headlines. It rose to $101.53 on Oct 8 (up 1.3%) as tanker attacks hit their weekly wartime high, settled 4% higher that Thursday, then fell to $103.53 on Oct 9 (down 0.7%, WTI at $90.97) after Trump ruled out pre-midterm strikes, and climbed again to $105.48 late Sunday Oct 11 (WTI $92.44) as Houthi strikes on Riyadh's airport and two weekend tanker attacks raised supply fears. Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast to $90 from $85, estimating the geopolitical risk premium at just over $20 a barrel and noting WTI trades unusually low versus Brent on high US-Europe shipping costs. The IEA also agreed to accelerate strategic stock releases and prioritize diesel under its March plan, treating the Iran-war fuel disruption as systemic.

    Reuters, 8 Oct 2026 · Reuters, 9 Oct 2026 · Reuters, 11 Oct 2026

11. New evidence2026-10-12

    Trump said Oct 8 that the US will not attack Iran before the Nov 3 midterm elections while keeping the naval blockade in full force, and claimed a record 22 million barrels moved through Hormuz 'last night alone', a figure analysts dispute (the US government says flows are back at prewar levels, independent data firms disagree). Washington paired the pause with pressure: fresh Oct 8 sanctions targeted individuals, networks and 17 vessels moving Iranian crude, products and petrochemicals. The indirect diplomacy channel is still alive but stuck: FM Araghchi said Oct 8 Iran is reviewing the US response to its seven-day Hormuz proposal and would reply within days, but SNSC Secretary Mohsen Rezaei was quoted by state media on Oct 11 calling the US response insufficient, saying the US had accepted some of Iran's seven conditions while others remain unclear, and FM spokesman Baghaei said Oct 12 the review continues with Tehran to reply via intermediaries. The reported sticking point is sequencing: the US wants Iran's nuclear program addressed from the outset, while Iran wants the strait reopened first.

    Reuters, 9 Oct 2026 · Reuters (BusinessWorld), 12 Oct 2026 · Reuters, 11 Oct 2026 · USA Today, 8 Oct 2026

12. New evidence2026-10-12

    Iran escalated the maritime campaign and the US escalated its interdictions. IRGC adviser Naqdi said Oct 7 that Iran will soon close the 'illegal routes' used by smugglers in the strait's southern Omani-side lane, reiterating the strait stays closed until Iran's demands are met. UKMTO logged a projectile strike with casualties on a tanker 51 nm north of Qatar (Oct 7/8), a drone strike near Sohar anchorage, Oman, and a projectile strike in the strait over the Oct 10-11 weekend; the IRGC claimed a supertanker hit one of its mines on Oct 11 (unverified). The IMO counted at least 11 tankers attacked in the week ending Oct 4, its highest weekly count since Feb 28. CENTCOM disabled the Panama-flagged M/V Ocean Molica on Oct 10 for running the blockade, noting US forces have disabled four ships and turned around 135 since the blockade was renewed three months ago.

    Reuters, 7 Oct 2026 · Reuters, 8 Oct 2026 · Reuters, 11 Oct 2026 · New York Post, 11 Oct 2026

13. New evidence2026-10-12

    Hormuz traffic fell back sharply in the week of Oct 6, hitting the lowest daily transit count in over two months as tanker attacks reached their highest weekly rate since the war began. Kpler counted just seven commodity vessels crossing on Tuesday Oct 6 (LSEG: 8 total crossings, down from 14 the day before), and crude crossing the strait fell 27% from its wartime high to at least 10.1 million b/d, or 74% of the pre-war level, with most of the loss in Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship transfers. The gap was filled by bypass routes: exports from the Gulf of Oman coast and the Red Sea rose to 6.7 million b/d, more than twice pre-war levels, keeping overall Middle East crude exports at the pre-war level.

    Reuters, 8 Oct 2026

14. New evidence2026-10-04

    Trump rejected Iran's seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz on Sept 26; Iran's terms were that the US lift its naval blockade, release frozen assets, waive oil-export sanctions, and observe a regional ceasefire including Lebanon, with nuclear talks resuming in return. Brent jumped to about $106-107 on Sept 28 as markets priced a continued blockade, and on Oct 4 Iran's parliament speaker and Foreign Minister Araghchi said the strait will not reopen until Iran's seven conditions under the Islamabad MOU are met. 'Closed' is Iran's declared position: some traffic has moved under US escort, and Reuters reported Oct 5 that Middle East crude exports exceeded pre-war levels in late September even as attacks on tankers increased.

    Free News Press: Trump rejects Iran proposal (Sep 26) · Newslooks: details of Iran's conditions (Sep 26) · Reuters: Iran says Hormuz will not reopen until conditions met (Oct 4) · Bloomberg via Moneyweb: Brent ~$107 after rejection (Sep 28) · Reuters: Middle East crude exports exceed pre-war levels (Oct 5)

15. Correction2026-09-25

    Revised the lesson and interpretation after commodity-trader feedback: price-window comparisons do not identify causal effects, and a declining price does not establish that a supply shock had no supportive effect. Removed unsupported claims about offsetting drivers and clarified benchmark and window limits.

    Commodity-trader feedback supplied by the user; editorial review of bundled event observations (25 Sep 2026) · CME Group — Rough Rice futures specifications · ICE — Coffee C futures specifications · CME Group — Wheat futures and options specifications

16. New evidence2026-09-23

    On Sep 22 Kyodo News reported that a senior Iranian official said Tehran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US takes steps toward lifting the blockade that has curtailed Iranian oil exports; President Trump said his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner had held 'productive talks' with Iranian mediators at the UN and predicted a deal after the November midterms. Brent traded at $99.18 in early Sep 23 trade (Reuters) after closing below $100 on Tuesday for the first time since Sep 8, while Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West (Petroline) pipeline on Sep 22 following the Sep 11 drone shutdown that had taken ~4 Mb/d of rerouted Gulf crude loadings off the market at Yanbu. Iraq's oil minister said exports now exceed 3 Mb/d with plans to push exports via Turkey above 600,000 b/d.

    Reuters, 2026-09-23 (oil falls on Gulf supply, US-Iran talks) · Trading Economics, 22 Sep 2026 (Brent news stream; reports Kyodo News on Iran's Hormuz offer)

17. New evidence2026-09-21

    The Feb 2026 escalation is now verified: US and Israeli strikes hit Iran on Feb 28, 2026 (a senior Israeli official told Reuters Khamenei was killed — no immediate Iranian confirmation), and Hormuz commercial traffic collapsed — by Sep 10 transits were running at roughly 7 per day versus about 125 per day before the war; the strait normally carries about a fifth of the world's daily crude oil and LNG supply (Reuters, Sep 11). The fertilizer channel stayed live through it: CRU reports Middle East urea at $390–410/t FOB with Hormuz shipping 'still uncertain', Iran's official price cut to $345/t FOB on failed tenders, and a 450,000-tonne sulphur shipping backlog in the strait (Kpler, Sep 15). The June 2025 'fertilizer flicker' read now sits inside a much larger 2026 conflict chapter.

    Reuters, 28 Feb 2026 · Reuters via SRN News, 11 Sep 2026 · BC Insight (CRU), 15 Sep 2026

18. Correction2026-09-15

    An independent adversarial review corrected the 12→13 June 2025 daily moves to recomputed CBOT front-month closes (wheat +3.28%, corn +1.37%, soy +2.64%), separated Euronext wheat as a different instrument on a settlement basis, relabeled palm oil as World Bank Pink Sheet monthly data, and stopped describing month-end windows as movement 'through' the conflict. No new outcome data was added.

    Morrowfly internal adversarial review (15 Sep 2026)

Transmission

• Wheat

  risk pricing

  CBOT front-month daily close (ZW=F) +3.28% on Jun 13 (12→13 Jun, analytical store), then reversed.

• Corn

  risk pricing

  CBOT front-month daily close (ZC=F) +1.37% on Jun 13 (12→13 Jun), then reversed.

• Soybeans

  risk pricing

  CBOT front-month daily close (ZS=F) +2.64% on Jun 13 (12→13 Jun), then reversed.

• Rice

  input cost

  Input-cost exposure only — no verified price move.

• Cotton

  input cost

  Input-cost exposure only — no verified price move.

• Sugar

  input cost

  Input-cost exposure only — no verified price move.

• urea/fertilizer

  input cost

  The real disruption: Iran shut all seven urea plants on June 16 and Egypt halted production when Israel cut its gas. Prices stayed tight past the ceasefire. (not a tracked commodity; the main channel — Iran and Egypt represent roughly a fifth of global urea trade (CRU), and Persian Gulf facilities supply about half of world urea exports (Bloomberg Intelligence).)

Sources

• ISW · 2025-06-13 · Iran Update: Israeli Strikes on Iran
• Reuters · 2025-06-13 · EU wheat rebounds as Israel-Iran escalation fuels short-covering
• Farm Policy News (Univ. of Illinois) · 2025-06 · Global Urea Prices Surge on Middle East Conflict
• StoneX · 2025-06-24 · How Middle East Strikes Sent Fertilizer Prices Soaring
• CRU / BC Insight · 2025-07-07 · Urea market on edge
• Congressional Research Service · retrospective · Iran Conflict and the Strait of Hormuz: Oil and Gas Market Impacts (R45281)
• CME Group · Reviewed 25 Sep 2026 · Rough Rice futures specifications
• ICE · Reviewed 25 Sep 2026 · Coffee C futures specifications
• CME Group · Reviewed 25 Sep 2026 · Wheat futures and options specifications