Scenarios
What if this El Niño is the strongest since 1950?
An El Niño is underway right now: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Advisory on September 10, 2026, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event through fall and winter 2026–27. This scenario models the forecast's upper tail — the difference between very strong (≥2.0°C) and historic (≥2.5°C, stronger than any El Niño since 1950).
tracked commodities were hit across the El Niño episodes in the record
Basis: Counted from the event record's links in the knowledge graph · Source: Morrowfly knowledge graph
The full Shock Path
01 · Shock
02 · Transmission
03 · Exposure
04 · Second-order
05 · View
06 · Outcome & Lesson
Select any card to see its facts and where the record keeps them.
Its neighborhood in the graph
The records one step away from this story in the knowledge graph. The Graph draws all of them at once.
Scenario · 16 links
Black Sea Grain
Russia and Ukraine together are a quarter of world wheat exports. Explore the exposure.
Open the guide →Scenario · 14 links
Severe La Nina
La Niña's crop damage concentrates in Argentina and southern Brazil — corn and soy. Model a severe event. Note: a strong El Niño is underway right now, so this is the counterfactual.
Open the guide →Scenario · 12 links
Brazil Crops
Brazil tops world exports of coffee, sugar, and soybeans. Explore what a bad season would expose.
Open the guide →Chokepoint · 11 links
Strait of Malacca
7 tracked commodities move through the Strait of Malacca. Its corridors serve exporters including Vietnam, Indonesia, Brazil, United States, Australia.
See the chokepoint page →Scenario · 11 links
Us Corn
The US is the top corn exporter. Explore what another 2012 would expose.
Open the guide →Chokepoint · 10 links
Suez Canal
5 tracked commodities move through the Suez Canal. Its corridors serve exporters including Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Brazil, Russia.
See the chokepoint page →Scenario · 10 links
Europe Heatwave
Maize, the Rhine, and French nuclear power. Model a severe European heatwave — not a wheat shock: 2022's drought helped the wheat harvest.
Open the guide →Scenario · 8 links
India Rice
India is the top rice exporter. Explore what another export curb would expose.
Open the guide →Every figure on this page comes from Morrowfly's records: the event records, the chokepoint lens, the trade dependency join, the positions book, and the odds snapshot, joined in the knowledge graph (4 featured stories shown here). Facts render solid; views render dashed; nothing is drawn that the record does not carry.