Scenarios
What if Brazil's coffee regions bake again?
Brazil is a third of world coffee exports. Explore what another 2024-style drought would expose.
of world coffee exports come from Brazil
Basis: Share of global export value, 2024 vintage. Source: OEC (BACI/CEPII) · Source: Morrowfly trade dependency data
The full Shock Path
01 · Shock
02 · Transmission
03 · Exposure
04 · Second-order
05 · View
06 · Outcome & Lesson
Select any card to see its facts and where the record keeps them.
Its neighborhood in the graph
The records one step away from this story in the knowledge graph. The Graph draws all of them at once.
Scenario · 16 links
Black Sea Grain
Russia and Ukraine together are a quarter of world wheat exports. Explore the exposure.
Open the guide →Scenario · 14 links
Severe La Nina
La Niña's crop damage concentrates in Argentina and southern Brazil — corn and soy. Model a severe event. Note: a strong El Niño is underway right now, so this is the counterfactual.
Open the guide →Scenario · 12 links
Brazil Crops
Brazil tops world exports of coffee, sugar, and soybeans. Explore what a bad season would expose.
Open the guide →Chokepoint · 11 links
Strait of Malacca
7 tracked commodities move through the Strait of Malacca. Its corridors serve exporters including Vietnam, Indonesia, Brazil, United States, Australia.
See the chokepoint page →Country · 11 links
Brazil
Brazil is tied to 3 tracked commodities and 15 recorded trade dependencies, 4 of them critical.
See the country page →Scenario · 11 links
Us Corn
The US is the top corn exporter. Explore what another 2012 would expose.
Open the guide →Scenario · 10 links
Europe Heatwave
Maize, the Rhine, and French nuclear power. Model a severe European heatwave — not a wheat shock: 2022's drought helped the wheat harvest.
Open the guide →Every figure on this page comes from Morrowfly's records: the event records, the chokepoint lens, the trade dependency join, the positions book, and the odds snapshot, joined in the knowledge graph (4 featured stories shown here). Facts render solid; views render dashed; nothing is drawn that the record does not carry.