Receipts
Every call we make, on the record.
Anyone can make a prediction. We write down what we expected, wait, and then show you what actually happened, including the misses. That's the whole business model of this page.
The ledger
Calls on the record
71
Graded
51
Still open
20
Graded probability calls (n)
0
51 graded: all historical assessments, reconstructed from the record. 23 forward calls are live; their grades begin October 31, 2026.
Not enough graded probability calls for a calibration score yet. The mean Brier, ours against the market's on the same calls, appears here once n reaches 10.
Paper calls only. Every probability below is frozen as first published, and every grade follows the criterion written down for the call. Entries reconstructed from the historical record carry criteria written when the record was reconstructed, not when the event happened, and each one is labeled in its row.
Showing 20 of 25.
Event expectation
12 Oct 2026
A BSGI-like Black Sea grain agreement is negotiated during 2027
- Resolved
- Due 2027-12-31
- Result
- Pending
Event expectation
A BSGI-like Black Sea grain agreement is negotiated during 2027
Event expectation
12 Oct 2026
India keeps rice export channels open under the current licensing regime through the 2026/27 season while global prices stay elevated
- Resolved
- Due 2027-03-31
- Result
- Pending
Event expectation
India keeps rice export channels open under the current licensing regime through the 2026/27 season while global prices stay elevated
Event expectation
12 Oct 2026
Hormuz transits stay depressed while Middle East crude exports hold near pre-war levels into early 2027
- Resolved
- Due 2027-02-28
- Result
- Pending
Event expectation
Hormuz transits stay depressed while Middle East crude exports hold near pre-war levels into early 2027
Event expectation
12 Oct 2026
Bab el-Mandeb coastal control shifts toward the Saudi-backed coalition through H1 2027 while Houthi retaliation against Saudi targets continues
- Resolved
- Due 2027-06-30
- Result
- Pending
Event expectation
Bab el-Mandeb coastal control shifts toward the Saudi-backed coalition through H1 2027 while Houthi retaliation against Saudi targets continues
Event expectation
8 Oct 2026
Lumber supply-tightening headlines (Oct 2026): watch whether export flows tighten further.
- Resolved
- Due 2026-11-06
- Result
- Pending
Event expectation
Lumber supply-tightening headlines (Oct 2026): watch whether export flows tighten further.
Event expectation
8 Oct 2026
Orange juice rallied 16% over 20 days (Oct 2026) with no attributable shock in the screened evidence.
- Resolved
- Due 2026-11-06
- Result
- Pending
Event expectation
Orange juice rallied 16% over 20 days (Oct 2026) with no attributable shock in the screened evidence.
Event expectation
8 Oct 2026
Wyoming drought forces cattle shipments (Oct 2026): watch whether shipments reverse and the live-cattle supply score moves.
- Resolved
- Due 2026-11-06
- Result
- Pending
Event expectation
Wyoming drought forces cattle shipments (Oct 2026): watch whether shipments reverse and the live-cattle supply score moves.
Event expectation
5 Oct 2026
ICE coffee futures hold at or above early-October levels through month-end as Brazil dryness persists into the flowering stage
- Resolved
- Due 2026-10-31
- Result
- Pending
Event expectation
ICE coffee futures hold at or above early-October levels through month-end as Brazil dryness persists into the flowering stage
Event expectation
5 Oct 2026
El Nino stays very strong through winter 2026-27
- Resolved
- Due 2027-03-31
- Result
- Pending
Event expectation
El Nino stays very strong through winter 2026-27
Event expectation
5 Oct 2026
Bursa Malaysia palm oil futures stay range-bound to weaker into month-end on high inventories and weak exports
- Resolved
- Due 2026-10-31
- Result
- Pending
Event expectation
Bursa Malaysia palm oil futures stay range-bound to weaker into month-end on high inventories and weak exports
Event expectation
5 Oct 2026
Ukraine's major Black Sea grain ports stay closed to export traffic through year-end 2026 as the Russian blockade persists
- Resolved
- Due 2027-01-31
- Result
- Pending
Event expectation
Ukraine's major Black Sea grain ports stay closed to export traffic through year-end 2026 as the Russian blockade persists
Event expectation
5 Oct 2026
Ivory Coast's 2026/27 cocoa output comes in below the 2025/26 crop on weak cherelle formation and below-normal rainfall
- Resolved
- Due 2027-07-31
- Result
- Pending
Event expectation
Ivory Coast's 2026/27 cocoa output comes in below the 2025/26 crop on weak cherelle formation and below-normal rainfall
Event expectation
1 Jun 2025
The June 2025 Iran-Israel/US conflict would put ~20% of world oil supply at risk via Hormuz (Brent +10% to >$77), while grain shorts covered on the risk (Euronext wheat up Jun 13) and urea prices surged on threatened fertilizer supply.
- Resolved
- 2025-06-24
- Result
- Miss
Event expectation
The June 2025 Iran-Israel/US conflict would put ~20% of world oil supply at risk via Hormuz (Brent +10% to >$77), while grain shorts covered on the risk (Euronext wheat up Jun 13) and urea prices surged on threatened fertilizer supply.
Event expectation
1 Apr 2024
With arabica at 47-year highs, the 2025/26 harvest was compromised before flowering and prices would appreciate further as producers held back (Tridge, Nov 2024).
- Resolved
- 2025-03-31
- Result
- Hit
Event expectation
With arabica at 47-year highs, the 2025/26 harvest was compromised before flowering and prices would appreciate further as producers held back (Tridge, Nov 2024).
Event expectation
1 Nov 2023
The Red Sea/Houthi shipping disruption would push grain market prices higher and feed inflation via shipping costs (Rusagrotrans via Interfax, Jan 2024; IMF).
- Resolved
- 2024-04-30
- Result
- Miss
Event expectation
The Red Sea/Houthi shipping disruption would push grain market prices higher and feed inflation via shipping costs (Rusagrotrans via Interfax, Jan 2024; IMF).
Event expectation
1 Jul 2023
Russia's exit from the Black Sea Grain Initiative would jump wheat prices and risk a fresh bout of destabilizing global food inflation (Jul 2023).
- Resolved
- 2023-09-29
- Result
- Miss
Event expectation
Russia's exit from the Black Sea Grain Initiative would jump wheat prices and risk a fresh bout of destabilizing global food inflation (Jul 2023).
Event expectation
1 Jul 2023
India's July 2023 rice export halt would roughly halve shipments by the world's largest exporter and trigger further global food inflation (Reuters; B.V. Krishna Rao: faster disruption than Ukraine did to wheat).
- Resolved
- 2024-09-30
- Result
- Partial
Event expectation
India's July 2023 rice export halt would roughly halve shipments by the world's largest exporter and trigger further global food inflation (Reuters; B.V. Krishna Rao: faster disruption than Ukraine did to wheat).
Event expectation
1 Jan 2023
West Africa's cocoa shortfall - a third straight deficit with a fourth priced in - would keep cocoa prices elevated (ICCO via Finimize, Dec 2024).
- Resolved
- 2024-12-31
- Result
- Hit
Event expectation
West Africa's cocoa shortfall - a third straight deficit with a fourth priced in - would keep cocoa prices elevated (ICCO via Finimize, Dec 2024).
Event expectation
1 Apr 2022
Indonesia's April 2022 palm oil export ban would shock already-record global edible-oil markets, leaving consumers no option but to pay top dollar (Reuters/LMC, Apr 2022).
- Resolved
- 2022-05-31
- Result
- Hit
Event expectation
Indonesia's April 2022 palm oil export ban would shock already-record global edible-oil markets, leaving consumers no option but to pay top dollar (Reuters/LMC, Apr 2022).
Event expectation
1 Feb 2022
The Russia-Ukraine war would push wheat prices to record highs and shift the 10-year outlook for all major crops to a new price level (RaboResearch, Apr 2022).
- Resolved
- 2022-05-02
- Result
- Partial
Event expectation
The Russia-Ukraine war would push wheat prices to record highs and shift the 10-year outlook for all major crops to a new price level (RaboResearch, Apr 2022).
These are changes in the named benchmarks over the stated windows, not estimates of the event’s effect. Endpoints omit interim moves. A supply shock may have kept prices above where they would otherwise have been, even if the measured change is negative.
Spot an error in the record? Tell us: harsha@morrowfly.com
Archive
The long-form stories behind the record, kept whole: what happened, what everyone expected, what actually happened, and the lesson.
Featured stories
The disruption that didn't spike prices
Red Sea / Houthi shipping disruption (2023–24)
Nov 2023 – Apr 2024
During Nov 2023 to Apr 2024, Chicago wheat futures rose slightly while corn and soybeans fell, alongside Red Sea shipping disruption. These benchmarks do not measure freight or delivered import costs, and their net changes cannot establish that the disruption had no commodity-price effect.
The pattern that doesn't always repeat
El Niño: different episodes, crops, and price benchmarks
Recurring — 2009-10, 2015-16, 2023-24
Prices moved in different directions during the selected El Niño windows. These observations do not measure El Niño’s effect: KC=F tracks arabica rather than Vietnam’s robusta, and ZR=F tracks US rough rice rather than Asian rice export prices.
The ban that coincided with a crash
Indonesia’s 2022 palm-oil ban and the wider price decline
Apr – May 2022
World Bank palm-oil monthly prices rose 2.0% from Apr to May 2022 and fell 40.5% from Mar to Jul. These windows overlap a short export ban and a wider vegetable-oil correction; they do not measure the ban’s independent price effect.
The grading standard
- Every what-if story asks a checkable question before anything happens, and names the date we check back.
- We record the exact question and the settings we used. No editing after the fact.
- When the check-back date arrives, the measured outcome is compared to the question we actually asked. No moving the goalposts.
- A call counts as right only if the outcome matched the question. Close doesn't count. “Directionally right” doesn't count.
- Misses stay published, with what we learned.
The ledger above is the evidence: every registered call with its check-back date, graded when the date arrives, right next to the misses.
The Shadow Book
We take live questions from prediction markets and work through them, the evidence, the uncertainties, what would change our mind, so you can form your own view. 6 worked examples on the record so far.
See what we think →Paper-traded. Not financial advice. Not a recommendation.
All stories
Wars & conflicts
Russia invades Ukraine: the Black Sea grain and fertilizer shock
Feb 2022 –
Chicago SRW wheat futures rose early in 2022 and later gave back part of that rise. The Black Sea disruption and subsequent changes in trade and supply are documented, but these price windows do not isolate the war’s effect or show where prices would have been without it.
Disruptions across markets
Russia exits the grain deal: Chicago wheat rises, then falls
Jul 2023
Chicago SRW wheat (ZW=F) rose 4.6% from Jun to Jul 2023 month-end, then stood 14.9% below June by September. The later decline does not show that leaving the grain deal had no bullish effect; prices might have fallen further without it.
Export bans
2008 rice export restrictions and price increases
Oct 2007 – 2008
USDA’s September 2008 assessment identified export restrictions as a major contributor to the rice price surge despite record production and rising global stocks. Our US rough-rice futures comparisons describe a different benchmark; they do not quantify the restrictions’ effect.
Export bans
Russia’s 2010 grain ban: Chicago wheat across the ban window
Aug 2010 – Jun 2011
Chicago SRW wheat (ZW=F) was up 20.1% from Jul to Dec 2010 month-end, but down 11.6% from Jul 2010 to Jun 2011. Different endpoints give different descriptions; neither comparison measures the ban’s price effect or proves that competitors fully offset it.
Export bans
India’s 2023 rice ban: international rice prices rose
Jul 2023 – Sep 2024
FAO’s All Rice Price Index rose 9.8% from Jul to Aug 2023. US rough-rice futures ended Jul 2023 to Sep 2024 down 1.2%, but that different benchmark and longer window cannot describe Asian rice markets’ reaction or measure the ban’s effect.
Wars & conflicts
June 2025 Iran–Israel/US conflict ("Twelve-Day War")
Jun 13 – Jun 24, 2025
Published urea benchmarks rose during the June 2025 conflict, while several US agricultural futures ended broader monthly windows lower. Those different markets and windows cannot establish that the conflict had no agricultural price effect.
Disruptions across markets
Ever Given blocks the Suez Canal (March 2021)
Mar 23 – Mar 29, 2021
The Ever Given blockage delayed shipping for six days. This record contains contemporary oil reporting but no verified agricultural event-window price comparison; it cannot establish the absence of an agricultural price effect.
Climate drivers
The 2012 US drought: corn futures across two harvests
Jun – Sep 2012
CBOT corn (ZC=F) rose 22.3% from Feb to Aug 2012 month-end, then fell 38.3% by Aug 2013. Those comparisons span different harvests and contracts; they do not isolate drought damage or establish that the next harvest will reverse a weather shock.
Climate drivers
Brazil’s 2024 drought and the arabica futures rally
Apr 2024 – Mar 2025
ICE arabica Coffee C (KC=F) rose 95.7% from Jan 2024 to Mar 2025 month-end, then fell 19.2% by June. This is not a robusta benchmark, and these windows do not separate Brazil’s weather from inventories, demand, positioning, or conditions in other origins.
Climate drivers
West African cocoa deficits and the ICE cocoa price path
2023 – Dec 2024
ICE US cocoa (CC=F) rose 352.3% from Jan 2023 to Dec 2024 month-end, then fell 32.3% by Mar 2025. Reported deficits provide context, but these price comparisons do not quantify the contributions of weather, disease, inventories, demand, or positioning.
Disruptions across markets
Lumber's October 2026 supply-tightening headlines — against a falling price
Oct 2026 –
A cluster of supply-tightening lumber headlines in early October 2026 coincided with LBR=F falling about 10% over the prior 20 days. The narrative and the price were telling different stories; this record exists to check which one was right by the 2026-11-06 check-back.
Climate drivers
Wyoming drought forces cattle shipments — liquidation now, smaller herd later?
Oct 2026 –
Drought-driven liquidation is a two-sided shock: more cattle shipped now can mean fewer cattle later. As of 2026-10-07 the direction is genuinely mixed, so this record's job is to watch whether shipments reverse and the supply score moves by the 2026-11-06 check-back — not to call the price.
Disruptions across markets
Orange juice's 16% three-week rally — with no shock in the evidence
Oct 2026 –
A 16% three-week rally in OJ=F arrived in September–October 2026 with no identifiable supply shock in the screened evidence. The honest lesson is about the limits of shock narratives: prices move on more than documented disruptions, and a WATCH score without a mechanism is a question, not an answer.